For decades, the \u201calternative homeland\u201d \u2013 the notion that Jordan should become the Palestinian state \u2013 was dismissed in Amman\u2019s diplomatic circles as a distant nightmare or a conspiracy theory.<\/p>\n
Today, under the shadow of a far-right Israeli government and a devastating genocidal war in Gaza, that nightmare has become an operational reality.<\/p>\n
The alarm in the Hashemite Kingdom reached a fever pitch on Sunday, following the Israeli cabinet\u2019s approval of measures to register vast swaths of the occupied West Bank as \u201cstate land\u201d under the Israeli Ministry of Justice. The move, described by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as a \u201csettlement revolution\u201d, effectively bypasses the military administration that has governed the occupied territory since 1967, treating it instead as sovereign Israeli soil.<\/p>\n
For Jordan, this bureaucratic annexation is the final signal that the status quo is dead. With the Israeli military\u2019s \u201cIron Wall\u201d operation crushing refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, Jordan\u2019s political and military establishment is no longer asking if a forced transfer is coming, but how to stop it.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe transfer is no longer a threat; it is moving to execution,\u201d Mamdouh al-Abbadi, Jordan\u2019s former deputy prime minister, told Al Jazeera. \u201cWe are seeing the practical application \u2026 The alternative homeland is something that is coming; after this West Bank, the enemy will move to the East Bank, to Jordan.\u201d<\/p>\n
The \u2018silent transfer\u2019<\/h2>\n
The fear in Amman is not just about military invasion, but about a \u201csoft transfer\u201d, making life in the West Bank unliveable to force a gradual exodus towards Jordan.<\/p>\n
Sunday\u2019s decision to transfer land registration authority to the Israeli Justice Ministry is viewed in Jordan as a critical step in this process. By erasing the Jordanian and Ottoman land registries that have protected Palestinian property rights for a century, Israel is clearing the legal path for massive settlement expansion.<\/p>\n
Al-Abbadi, a veteran voice in Jordanian politics, pointed to symbolic but dangerous shifts in Israeli military nomenclature.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a new brigade in the Israeli army, named the Gilead Brigade,\u201d al-Abbadi noted. \u201cWhat is Gilead? Gilead is a mountainous region near the capital, Amman. This means the Israelis are proceeding with their strategic practices from the Nile to the Euphrates.\u201d<\/p>\n
He argued that the 1994 Wadi Araba Treaty is effectively null and void in the eyes of the current Israeli leadership.<\/p>\n
\u201cSmotrich\u2019s ideology is not just the view of one person; it has become the doctrine of the state,\u201d al-Abbadi said, warning that the Israeli consensus has shifted permanently. \u201cThey are the ones who killed the Wadi Araba treaty before it was even born \u2026 If we do not wake up, the strategy will be \u2018either us or them\u2019. There is no third option.\u201d<\/p>\n
A \u2018second army\u2019 of tribes<\/h2>\n
As diplomatic avenues narrow, questions are turning to Jordan\u2019s military options. The Jordan Valley, a long strip of fertile land separating the two banks, is now the front line of what Jordanian strategists call an \u201cexistential defence\u201d.<\/p>\n
Major-General (retired) Mamoun Abu Nowar, a military expert, warned that Israel\u2019s actions amount to an \u201cundeclared war\u201d on the kingdom. He suggested that if the displacement pressure continues, Jordan must be ready to take drastic measures.<\/p>\n
\u201cJordan could declare the Jordan Valley a closed military zone to prevent displacement,\u201d Abu Nowar told Al Jazeera. \u201cThis could lead to conflict and ignite the region.\u201d<\/p>\n
While acknowledging the disparity in military capabilities, he dismissed the idea that Israel could easily overrun Jordan, citing the kingdom\u2019s unique social fabric.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Jordanian interior, with its tribes and clans \u2026 this is a second army,\u201d Abu Nowar said. \u201cEvery village and every governorate will be a defensive line for Jordan \u2026 Israel will not succeed in this confrontation.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, he cautioned that the situation is volatile. With the West Bank potentially exploding into a religious conflict, he warned of a \u201cregional earthquake\u201d if red lines are crossed. \u201cOur army is professional and ready for all scenarios, including military confrontation,\u201d he added. \u201cWe cannot leave it like this.\u201d<\/p>\n
The collapse of the US guarantee<\/h2>\n
Compounding Jordan\u2019s anxiety is a deep sense of abandonment by its oldest ally: the United States. For decades, the \u201cJordanian option\u201d \u2014the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom \u2014 was a cornerstone of US policy.<\/p>\n
But Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, argued that this \u201cstrategic wager\u201d has collapsed.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe bet on Washington \u2026 has faltered, if not collapsed,\u201d al-Rantawi told Al Jazeera. He pointed to a \u201cparadigm shift\u201d that began during US President Donald Trump\u2019s first term, which saw Washington move its regional anchor from Amman and Cairo to the Gulf capitals, \u201cdazzled by the shine of money and investments\u201d.<\/p>\n
Al-Rantawi noted that even under the Biden administration, and now with the return of Trump, the US has shown a willingness to sacrifice Jordanian interests for Israel.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen put to the test \u2014 choosing between two allies \u2014 Washington will inevitably choose Israel without hesitation,\u201d al-Rantawi said.<\/p>\n
He described Jordan\u2019s position as precarious, trapped in a dependency loop. \u201cJordan is between two fires: the fire of [US] aid on one hand, and the fire of the threat \u2026 the existential Israeli threat to the entity and identity,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
General Abu Nowar echoed this scepticism regarding US protection, questioning whether Jordan\u2019s status as a key non-NATO ally means anything in practice. \u201cWill they apply Article 5 of NATO to us?\u201d he asked. \u201cThis gives a lack of credibility to the Americans.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"INTERACTIVE](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/INTERACTIVE-US-foreign-aid-to-Jordan-1739358458.png?w=770&resize=770%2C962&quality=80\")
<\/p>\n
Facing this isolation, voices in Amman are calling for a radical overhaul of Jordan\u2019s alliances. The kingdom has traditionally maintained a cold peace with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Ramallah while shunning Hamas and other resistance factions, a policy al-Rantawi believes has been a strategic error.<\/p>\n
\u201cJordan shot its diplomacy in the foot,\u201d al-Rantawi explained, by insisting on an exclusive relationship with the weakened PA in Ramallah.<\/p>\n
He contrasted Jordan\u2019s position with that of Qatar, Egypt, and Turkiye, which maintained ties with the Palestinian group Hamas and thus retained leverage. \u201cCairo, Doha, and Ankara kept ties with Hamas, which strengthened their presence even with the US,\u201d he said. \u201cJordan gave up this role voluntarily \u2026 or due to miscalculation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Al-Rantawi suggested this reluctance stems from internal fears of empowering the Muslim Brotherhood within Jordan, but the cost has been a loss of regional influence just when Amman needs it most.<\/p>\n
Preparing for the worst<\/h2>\n
The consensus among the elite is that the time for \u201cdiplomatic warnings\u201d is over. The language in Amman has shifted to mobilisation and survival.<\/p>\n
In early February, the kingdom officially resumed its compulsory military service programme, known as \u201cFlag Service\u201d, ending a 35-year hiatus. The Jordanian armed forces stated the move aims to \u201cdevelop combat capabilities to keep pace with modern warfare methods\u201d amid complex regional conditions.<\/p>\n
Al-Abbadi went further, calling for universal conscription to ensure total readiness. \u201cWe ask the state for compulsory conscription; everyone in Jordan must be able to bear arms,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He also urged cultural mobilisation. \u201cWe must teach our children at least the Hebrew language, because he who knows the language of a people is safe from their evil.\u201d<\/p>\n
Calling for strict monitoring of the King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge crossing, he added: \u201cIf there is a slow, camouflaged transfer \u2026 we must close the bridges immediately and without hesitation.\u201d<\/p>\n
As the Israeli Justice Ministry begins rewriting the land deeds of the West Bank, erasing Palestinian ownership in ledgers just as their homes are erased on the ground, Jordan faces its most precarious moment since 1967. The buffer is gone, and the kingdom finds itself standing alone in the path of the storm.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe world gives speeches, everyone condemns \u2026 and Israel acts,\u201d al-Abbadi said. \u201cIf we do not wake up \u2026 the strategy will be: \u2018Either us or them\u2019. There is no third strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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For decades, the \u201calternative homeland\u201d \u2013 the notion that Jordan should become the Palestinian state \u2013 was dismissed in Amman\u2019s diplomatic circles as a distant nightmare or a conspiracy theory. Today, under the shadow of a far-right Israeli government and a devastating genocidal war in Gaza, that nightmare has become an operational reality. The alarm […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12472,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12471"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12471\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12472"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}