\n<\/p>\n
Moscow for decades has been Iran\u2019s main international backer, shielding it from United Nations resolutions while trying to soften Western sanctions and selling weaponry worth billions of dollars to Tehran.<\/p>\n
Russian President Vladimir Putin lambasted the killing on Saturday of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei\u00a0as a \u201ccynical violation of all norms of human morals and the international law\u201d.<\/p>\n list of 4 items<\/span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n Putin\u2019s former prime minister and one-time successor Dmitry Medvedev sardonically called United States President Donald Trump a \u201cpeacekeeper who showed his real face\u201d.<\/p>\n Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the State Duma, the lower house of Russia\u2019s Federal Assembly, compared the war to what he alleged were the collective West\u2019s attempts to destabilise Russia in the 1990s, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said US-Iranian talks about Tehran\u2019s nuclear programme \u201cdegraded to direct aggression\u201d.<\/p>\n But as US and Israeli air strikes on Iran raged on for a fourth day on Tuesday, Russia appeared poised to benefit far more from the war than it looked to lose.<\/p>\n Moscow\u2019s most immediate gain is a boost in its oil revenues.<\/p>\n The price of Russia\u2019s Urals crude plunged to a new low in late February at $40 per barrel because of deep discounts caused by Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n But as the price of the international benchmark Brent crude jumped by 13 percent by Monday, reaching $82 per barrel, Urals was traded at $57.<\/p>\n Russia, Iran and Venezuela are the world\u2019s top producers of heavy crude that is exported to dozens of nations to be processed by their refineries.<\/p>\n Venezuela\u2019s exports stalled after US special forces captured President Nicolas Maduro on January 3 and the White House gained control of Caracas\u2019s oil trade.<\/p>\n The suspension of Iran\u2019s exports means that oil refineries designed to process heavy crude will have to rely on the Urals oil from Russia.<\/p>\n \u201cIt means that Russian oil will be sought after because the rebuilding of technological processes of oil refineries takes long and costs a lot,\u201d Igar Tyshkevych, a political analyst based in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, told Al Jazeera. \u201cIt means that the discounts for Russian oil will change.\u201d<\/p>\n If oil prices rise further, the Kremlin may propose to increase supply in exchange for Washington\u2019s decision to partially lift the sanctions.<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s higher oil production would decrease petrol prices in the US before the midterm elections in November, he said.<\/p>\n A second, longer-term gain could be Moscow\u2019s attempt to act as a mediator in peace talks between Tehran and Washington.<\/p>\n \u201cIt has been tried several times during conflicts between the US and Iran,\u201d Tyshkevych said. \u201cIt didn\u2019t always work, but Russia can try.\u201d<\/p>\n In March 2025, Putin offered to mediate US-Iranian negotiations on Tehran\u2019s nuclear programme and three months later repeated the proposal while US and Israeli strikes were hitting Iran during a 12-day war.<\/p>\n Washington ignored its offer both times.<\/p>\n The conflicts with Iran have distracted Trump from trying to reach a US-brokered settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war, which entered its fifth year on February 24.<\/p>\n The talks have stalled as Moscow has kept urging Ukraine to leave the Kyiv-controlled part of the Donetsk region in southeastern Ukraine.<\/p>\n Washington will continue pressing both sides to settle, turning the talks into a \u201cwho blinks first\u201d game, Tyshkevych said.<\/p>\n \u201cNo one wants to say \u2018no\u2019 first but tries to create conditions for the opponent to loudly say \u2018no\u2019 and slam the door loudly,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n And as the attention of Washington and other Western powers is turned towards the war in Iran, Russia gets several weeks to come up with a new agenda for Trump, he said.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Ukraine could face a shortage of US-supplied missiles for Patriot air defence systems, which can shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, analysts warned.<\/p>\n Patriot missiles are being redirected to Washington\u2019s allies in the Middle East.<\/p>\n \u201cWe felt a serious deficit before the war, and there is a high probability that the situation will only get worse,\u201d Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the Ukrainian military\u2019s General Staff, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n Patriot missiles \u201care manufactured in very low numbers. Americans have tried to change it, but with such demand, it can\u2019t be done fast,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n However, Putin faces a tough choice between Washington and Tehran, according to a Russian expert on Iran.<\/p>\n \u201cMoscow has to choose, and for Putin, it\u2019s a very tough choice because on the one hand, he doesn\u2019t want to have a falling-out with Trump, but on the other hand, the regime in Tehran is one of the few serious foreign partners for the Kremlin for now,\u201d Ruslan Suleymanov, an associate fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Center, a US-British think tank, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cBesides, there is the heaviest choice between Iran and Israel,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The Kremlin has tried to maintain a pragmatic partnership with Israel.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we\u2019re talking about immediate gains, then, yes, Russian propaganda can spin this episode with the killing of Khamenei as [an example of] Western treachery as in \u2018Why can they do it and we can\u2019t,\u2019\u201d Suleymanov said, referring to Khamenei\u2019s killing and Moscow\u2019s failed attempts to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.<\/p>\n \u201cIn any case, this situation is a blow to Putin\u2019s image that yet again shows that he is incapable of really helping his partners, his allies,\u201d Suleymanov added.<\/p>\nRecommended Stories <\/h2>\n
\u2018Russian oil will be sought after\u2019<\/h2>\n