{"id":14210,"date":"2026-03-07T05:57:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T05:57:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/?p=14210"},"modified":"2026-03-07T05:57:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T05:57:15","slug":"caught-between-iran-and-saudi-arabia-can-pakistan-stay-neutral-for-long-israel-iran-conflict-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/?p=14210","title":{"rendered":"Caught between Iran and Saudi Arabia, can Pakistan stay neutral for long? | Israel-Iran conflict News"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Islamabad, Pakistan \u2013<\/strong> The reverberations of a war in which US-Israel attacks have killed more than a thousand people in Iran, including the country\u2019s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and Iranian missiles and drones have fallen on Israel in retaliation, are being felt deeply in Pakistan.<\/p>\n

Six Gulf countries have also come under Iranian missile and drone attacks, putting Pakistan in a tough position.<\/p>\n

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The country shares a 900-kilometre (559 miles) border with Iran in its southwest, and millions of its workers are residents in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations.<\/p>\n

Since September last year, Islamabad has also reinforced its decades-long ties with Riyadh by signing a formal mutual defence agreement that commits each side to treat aggression against the other as aggression against both.<\/p>\n

As Iranian drones and ballistic missiles continue to target Gulf states, the question being asked with increasing urgency in Pakistan is what Islamabad will do next if it finds itself pulled into the war.<\/p>\n

Islamabad\u2019s answer so far has been to work the phones furiously, engaging regional leaders, including Iran and Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

When US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Pakistan condemned the attacks as \u201cunwarranted\u201d. Within hours, it also condemned Iran\u2019s retaliatory strikes on Gulf states as \u201cblatant violations of sovereignty\u201d.<\/p>\n

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who was attending an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Riyadh when the conflict began last week, launched what he later described as \u201cshuttle communication\u201d between Tehran and Riyadh.<\/p>\n

Speaking in the Senate on March 3, and at a news conference later the same day, Dar disclosed that he had personally reminded Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Pakistan\u2019s defence obligations to Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, and the whole world knows about it,\u201d Dar said. \u201cI told the Iranian leadership to take care of our pact with Saudi Arabia.\u201d<\/p>\n

Araghchi, he said, asked for guarantees that Saudi soil would not be used to attack Iran. Dar said he obtained those assurances from Riyadh and credited the back-channel exchange with limiting the scale of Iranian strikes on the kingdom.<\/p>\n

On March 5, Iran\u2019s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Alireza Enayati, said his country welcomed Saudi Arabia\u2019s pledge not to allow its airspace or territory to be used during the ongoing war with the US and Israel.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe appreciate what we have repeatedly heard from Saudi Arabia \u2013 that it does not allow its airspace, waters, or territory to be used against the Islamic Republic of Iran,\u201d he said in an interview.<\/p>\n

But only a day later, during early hours of March 6, Saudi Arabia\u2019s defence ministry confirmed<\/a> it intercepted three ballistic missiles targeting the kingdom\u2019s Prince Sultan Air Base. And hours later, Pakistan\u2019s Field Marshal Asim Munir was in Riyadh, meeting Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, where they \u201cdiscussed Iranian attacks on the Kingdom and the measures needed to halt them within the framework\u201d of their mutual defence pact, the Saudi minister said in a post on X.<\/p>\n

As the war escalates, analysts say that Pakistan\u2019s tightrope walk between two close partners could become harder and harder.<\/p>\n

A defence pact under pressure<\/h2>\n
\"A
A month after Iranian president\u2019s visit to Islamabad, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh in September 2025 to sign a defence agreement [File: Handout\/Saudi Press Agency via Reuters]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, signed on September 17, 2025, in Riyadh by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif alongside army chief Asim Munir, was the most significant formal defence commitment Pakistan had entered into in decades.<\/p>\n

Its central clause states that any aggression against either country shall be considered aggression against both. The wording was modelled on collective defence principles similar to NATO\u2019s Article 5, though analysts have cautioned against interpreting it as an automatic trigger for military intervention.<\/p>\n

The agreement followed Israel\u2019s September 2025 strikes on Hamas officials in Doha, an event that shook confidence in US security guarantees across the six Gulf Cooperation Council states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n

Nuclear-armed Pakistan has maintained a military relationship with Saudi Arabia for decades, according to which an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 Pakistani troops remain stationed in the kingdom.<\/p>\n

Now the pact is being tested under conditions neither side anticipated.<\/p>\n

Umer Karim, an associate fellow at the Riyadh-based King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, called Pakistan\u2019s current predicament the outcome of a miscalculation.<\/p>\n

Islamabad, he argued, likely never expected to find itself caught between Tehran and Riyadh, particularly after the China-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.<\/p>\n

\u201cPakistani leaders were always careful not to take an official plunge vis-a-vis Saudi defence. It was done for the first time by the current army chief, and though the potential dividends are big, so are the costs,\u201d Karim told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cPerhaps this is the last time the Saudis will test Pakistan, and if Pakistan doesn\u2019t fulfil its commitments now, the relationship will be irreversibly damaged,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

In 2015, it declined a direct Saudi request to join the military coalition fighting in Yemen, following a parliamentary resolution that the country must remain neutral.<\/p>\n

Aziz Alghashian, senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum in Riyadh, pointed to that episode. \u201cThe limitation of the Saudi-Pakistan treaty is clear. Treaties are only as strong as the political calculations and political will behind them,\u201d Alghashian told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

But Ilhan Niaz, a professor of history at Islamabad\u2019s Quaid-e-Azam University, said that if Saudi Arabia feels sufficiently threatened by Iran to formally request Pakistani military assistance, \u201cPakistan will come to Saudi Arabia\u2019s aid.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTo do otherwise would undermine Pakistan\u2019s credibility,\u201d he told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

The Iran constraint<\/h2>\n

The complicating factor for Pakistan is that it cannot afford to treat Iran simply as an adversary if Riyadh calls for military assistance.<\/p>\n

The two countries share a long and porous border, maintain significant trade ties, and have recently stepped up diplomatic engagement. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Islamabad in August 2025, and the two governments maintain a range of formal and backchannel contacts.<\/p>\n

Niaz acknowledged that Tehran has also been \u201ca difficult neighbour\u201d, pointing to the January 2024 exchange of cross-border strikes initiated by Iran as evidence of the relationship\u2019s unpredictability.<\/p>\n

Even so, he said Pakistan had \u201cvital national interests\u201d in ensuring Iran\u2019s stability and territorial integrity.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe collapse of Iran into civil war, its fragmentation into warring states, and the extension of Israeli influence to Pakistan\u2019s western borders are all developments that greatly, and rightly, worry Islamabad,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The domestic fallout from the US-Israel strikes and Iran\u2019s response has already been immediate.<\/p>\n

The army was deployed and a three-day curfew imposed in Gilgit-Baltistan after at least 23 people were killed in protests across Pakistan following Khamenei\u2019s assassination. The protests were driven largely by Pakistan\u2019s Shia community, estimated to make up between 15 and 20 percent of the 250 million population, which has historically mobilised around developments involving Iran.<\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s violent sectarian history adds another layer of risk.<\/p>\n

The Zainabiyoun Brigade, a Pakistan-origin Shia militia trained, funded and commanded by Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has recruited thousands of fighters from Pakistan over the past decade. While many fought in Syria against ISIL (ISIS), many Syrians activists accuse them of committing sectarian violence.<\/p>\n

Two years ago, Pakistan\u2019s northwestern Kurram district, the Zainabiyoun\u2019s primary recruitment ground, saw more than 130 people killed in sectarian clashes in the final weeks of 2024 alone.<\/p>\n

Pakistan formally banned the group in 2024, but many believe the designation has done little to dismantle its networks.<\/p>\n

Analysts warn that fighters hardened in Syria\u2019s civil war could, if Iran\u2019s conflict with Pakistan\u2019s Gulf partners deepens, shift from a defensive to an offensive posture on Pakistani soil.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran has significant influence over Shia organisations in Pakistan,\u201d\u00a0Islamabad-based security analyst Amir Rana, executive director of the Pak Institute of Peace Studies, told Al Jazeera.\u00a0\u201cAnd then you have Balochistan, which is already a highly volatile area. If there is any confrontation, the fallout for Pakistan would be severe.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s Balochistan province borders Iran, and has been ground-zero for a decades-long separatist movement. \u201cThat reality cannot be ignored,\u201d Muhammad Khatibi, a political analyst based in Tehran, said, pointing out that geography itself constrains Islamabad\u2019s choices.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny perception that Islamabad is siding militarily against Tehran could inflame domestic sectarian divisions in ways that a full-scale regional war would make very difficult to contain,\u201d Khatibi told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\"Violence
Violence erupted in Pakistan following news of US and Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. At least 23 people were killed in violence across the country, with at least 10 people killed in Karachi during a protest outside the US Consulate General [Akhtar Soomro\/Reuters]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What are Pakistan\u2019s options?<\/h2>\n

Analysts say direct offensive military action against Iran, such as deploying combat aircraft or conducting strikes on Iranian territory, is not a realistic option for Pakistan, given its domestic constraints.<\/p>\n

Rana describes Islamabad\u2019s current posture as an attempt to placate both sides.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran\u2019s primary threat is through air strikes using drones and missiles, and that is an area where Pakistan can help and provide assistance to Saudi Arabia. But that would mean Pakistan becoming a party to the war, and that is a major question mark,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He added that the most viable option for Pakistan could be to provide covert operational support to Saudi Arabia while maintaining diplomatic engagement with Iran.<\/p>\n

Alghashian also agreed; he identified air defence cooperation as the most concrete role Pakistan could play \u2014 it would be both \u201cmilitarily meaningful and politically defensible\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThey could help create more air defence capacity,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is tangible, it is defensive, and it is in Pakistan\u2019s interest that Saudi Arabia becomes more stable and prosperous.\u201d<\/p>\n

Karim, however, warned that the window for Pakistan\u2019s balancing act may be closing faster than Islamabad realises.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs the situation reaches a tipping point and as Saudi energy installations and infrastructure are hit, it is only a matter of time that Saudi Arabia will ask Pakistan to contribute towards its defence,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He added that if Pakistan deploys air defence assets to Saudi Arabia, doing so could leave its own air defences dangerously exposed, while deeper involvement could carry political costs at home.<\/p>\n

For now, Islamabad\u2019s strongest card remains diplomacy, using its access to both Riyadh and Tehran and the trust it has accumulated. Khatibi said Pakistan should protect that position \u201cat all costs\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cPakistan\u2019s most realistic positioning is as a mediator and leveraging its relationships with both sides. It is highly unlikely that Pakistan deploys forces into an anti-Iran coalition. The risks would outweigh the benefits,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The stakes for Pakistan<\/h2>\n

The scenario least favourable to Islamabad would be a collective Gulf Cooperation Council decision to enter the war directly, and the warning signs are mounting.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have both declared that Iranian attacks \u201ccrossed a red line\u201d.<\/p>\n

A joint statement issued on March 1 by the United States, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE said they \u201creaffirm the right to self-defense in the face of these attacks.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Pakistan, such an escalation could carry serious consequences.<\/p>\n

Economically, with millions of Pakistani workers living and earning their wages in Gulf states, remittances from the region provide crucial foreign exchange for an economy still recovering from a balance of payments crisis.<\/p>\n

Khatibi said any prolonged regional war that disrupts Gulf economies would directly affect Pakistan\u2019s financial position.<\/p>\n

\u201cEnergy prices could also spike, adding further strain,\u201d he said, noting Pakistan\u2019s heavy dependence on Gulf states for its energy needs.<\/p>\n

Pakistan is also simultaneously managing its own military confrontation with the Afghan Taliban\u00a0which began two days before the US-Israel strikes.<\/p>\n

Karim warned that deeper involvement in the regional conflict could trigger internal instability.<\/p>\n

\u201cSectarian conflict,\u201d he said, \u201ccan reignite, taking the country back to the bloody 1990s. The government already has lean political legitimacy, and such an occurrence will make it even more unpopular.\u201d<\/p>\n

Alghashian also highlighted Pakistan\u2019s reluctance to be drawn into the conflict.<\/p>\n

\u201cSaudi Arabia does not want to be in this war and is getting dragged into it. Pakistan will also certainly not want to be dragged into somebody else\u2019s war that they didn\u2019t want to be dragged into. It just wouldn\u2019t make any sense,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

But Niaz said that if the crisis eventually forces Islamabad to choose, the calculus may become unavoidable.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Tehran forces Pakistan to choose between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the choice would unquestionably be in favour of the Saudis.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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Islamabad, Pakistan \u2013 The reverberations of a war in which US-Israel attacks have killed more than a thousand people in Iran, including the country\u2019s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and Iranian missiles and drones have fallen on Israel in retaliation, are being felt deeply in Pakistan. Six Gulf countries have also come under Iranian missile and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14210\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}