Global oil prices are continuing to surge despite the International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA) announcement of the largest release of emergency reserves in history.<\/p>\n
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose about 15 percent after the Paris-based IEA on Wednesday announced plans to release 400 million barrels to stabilise prices amid the fallout of the United States and Israel\u2019s war with Iran.<\/p>\n list of 4 items<\/span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n Oil prices hovered at about $100 a barrel as of 02:00 GMT on Thursday, up more than 35 percent compared with before the start of the war.<\/p>\n While the IEA\u2019s release may offer some relief in the short-term, it will likely have a minimal effect on lowering prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, according to market analysts.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not a silver bullet to solve everything. You have to solve the underlying problem,\u201d Maksim Sonin, an energy executive who is a fellow at Stanford University\u2019s Center for Fuels of the Future, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cMarkets trade on expectations, and so far they are on the concerned side,\u201d Sonin said.<\/p>\n Traffic through the strait, which is bordered by Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, has come to an effective halt amid Tehran\u2019s threats against shipping in the region, blocking about one-fifth of the global oil supply.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday that it would not allow \u201ceven one litre of oil\u201d through the waterway and the world should expect oil to soar to $200 a barrel.<\/p>\n At least five commercial ships were attacked in the region on Wednesday, including two oil tankers in the Iraqi port of al-Faw.<\/p>\n US President Donald Trump has offered mixed messages on how long the war on Iran could last, variously saying that it would end \u201cvery soon\u201d and that US forces had still not \u201cwon enough\u201d.<\/p>\n Oil prices have been on a roller coaster ride in recent days amid fears of prolonged turmoil in the global energy sector.<\/p>\n Brent crude soared as high as $119 on Monday, then plunged below $80 on Tuesday after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright falsely claimed that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the strait.<\/p>\n While the IEA\u2019s release of strategic reserves is historic in scope, it seeks to temporarily plug a massive \u2013 and rapidly growing \u2013 shortfall.<\/p>\n About 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait each day under normal circumstances.<\/p>\n After\u00a012 days\u00a0of war,\u00a0the\u00a0global shortfall\u00a0already\u00a0exceeds\u00a0200 million\u00a0barrels\u00a0\u2013\u00a0more than\u00a0half of\u00a0the IEA\u2019s\u00a0planned release.<\/p>\n \u201cIf this continues, the release will only buy temporary relief,\u201d Gregor Semieniuk, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cMy sense is the release is already priced in \u2013 that\u2019s why prices fell to the 80s after rising to almost $120 a barrel,\u201d Semieniuk said.<\/p>\n \u201cMoreover, once it\u2019s released, part of the firepower is gone and a continued blockage is even more threatening,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cSo if market expectations are that the reserve release cannot make up all the shortfall, it will do little to check prices beyond what it has already done,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n There are also constraints on how quickly the IEA\u2019s 32 member countries will be able to get fresh supplies to the market.<\/p>\n JPMorgan has estimated that, based on past precedent, IEA member countries would be able to boost their output by 1.2 million barrels per day at most \u2013 a fraction of the daily volume that had moved through the strait.<\/p>\n In its announcement on Wednesday, the IEA did not provide an exact timeline for the release, saying it would provide further details\u00a0in due course.<\/p>\n While the IEA coordinates the release of international stockpiles totalling some 1.8 billion barrels, reserves are held and managed by individual member countries.<\/p>\n The US Department of Energy said on Wednesday that it would release its portion of the reserves \u2013 totalling 172 million barrels \u2013 beginning next week. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said her government would start releasing 80 million barrels as early as Monday.<\/p>\n \u201cIf the roughly 400 million barrels of strategic reserves being discussed convinces traders that supply can meet demand in the near term, it can calm prices for a while,\u201d Chad Norville, president of industry publication Rigzone, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cBut if the disruption persists and the market begins to doubt that replacement supply is sufficient, history shows prices can move sharply higher again.\u201d<\/p>\n The IEA has coordinated releases of reserves on five previous occasions, with varying results.<\/p>\n After the IEA announced plans to release 60 million barrels shortly after Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, oil prices almost immediately surged about 20 percent to $113 a barrel, though prices eased gradually over the proceeding months.<\/p>\n The IEA\u2019s efforts to boost supply in the run-up to the 1991 Gulf War, by contrast, was widely credited with bringing immediate stability to the market, with prices plunging by about one-third the day after the US began air strikes on Iraq.<\/p>\n Semieniuk, the University of Massachusetts Amherst professor, said he expects prices to rise dramatically if the strait\u2019s effective closure extends into next week.<\/p>\n \u201cUnless the conflict is\u00a0ended\u00a0this week, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised for the oil price to pass $150 a barrel eventually,\u00a0after effects\u00a0from strategic buffer stocks have worn out,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cI can\u2019t make a forecast as to how high the oil price goes, but using back of the envelope calculations, a 20 percent supply cut could in principle lead to above $200 per barrel as demand competes for a limited supply,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Global oil prices are continuing to surge despite the International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA) announcement of the largest release of emergency reserves in history. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose about 15 percent after the Paris-based IEA on Wednesday announced plans to release 400 million barrels to stabilise prices amid the fallout of the United States […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14773,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14772\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14773"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Recommended Stories <\/h2>\n
![\"This](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AFP__20260311__A2T3663__v7__HighRes__TopshotWarIranUsIsraelThailandAttackLogistics-1773283341.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80\")
\u2018Temporary relief\u2019<\/h3>\n
\u2018History shows prices can move sharply higher again\u2019<\/h3>\n
![\"strait\"](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AP26070639039983-1773284133.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80\")
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