As the United States-Israeli war on Iran completes two weeks, it has triggered a global energy crisis, even as Iran\u2019s retaliation threatens to pull the rest of the Middle East into the conflict.<\/p>\n
The Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20 to 30 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass, has effectively been closed because of the conflict, sending crude prices soaring and disrupting oil and gas supplies.<\/p>\n list of 4 items<\/span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n From Southeast Asia to Pakistan, the ripple effects of the war are being felt across Asia and beyond.<\/p>\n But one country in particular could face a double whammy if the conflict intensifies: India, the world\u2019s fourth-largest economy, depends on the Gulf for its energy needs and also for remittances sent by a vast workforce resident in the Middle East.<\/p>\n We unpack how the war is bleeding India\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n More than 80 percent of India\u2019s gas and up to 60 percent of its oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and is currently at the centre of retaliatory tactics Iran is deploying against the US and Israel. By threatening all shipping coming through, Iran has effectively closed the strait \u2013 leaving Gulf oil producers with no sea route by which to deliver oil and LNG.<\/p>\n Most shipping insurers have cancelled war risk coverage for tankers in the strait. Then on Wednesday, a Thai ship heading to India was attacked, drawing criticism from India.<\/p>\n Hotels and restaurants in India are already weighing closure and people are queueing to stock up on LPG (cooking gas) cylinders amid fears of a shortage, even though the government assures the public it has approximately one month\u2019s supply in storage. Such is the panic, however, that the government has gone as far as to invoke emergency measures to discourage hoarding, urging people to remain calm.<\/span><\/p>\n Iran has invoked the right to self-defence to justify the retaliatory attacks and has used the strait as leverage in an attempt to end the war. More than 1,300 civilians have been killed and properties have been damaged across Iran amid the US-Israeli attacks.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s tactics seem to be working, as stocks have plunged and oil prices have spiked, reaching nearly $120 a barrel on Sunday before settling at about $100 this week, which is still about $40 more than before the war began. This week, Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would not allow \u201cone litre of oil\u201d to pass the strait, and warned the world to expect oil to reach $200 per barrel.<\/p>\n The International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA) move on Wednesday to release a record 400 million barrels of crude oil has failed to stabilise oil prices.<\/p>\n \u201cIndia\u2019s energy security will be impacted significantly, as it relies on the Middle East for a substantial portion of its energy requirements,\u201d said Harsh V Pant, vice president of the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi.<\/p>\n \u201cEnergy markets are already volatile and costs are rising, which could eventually translate into broader economic and inflationary pressures,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n India is also worried for some 9.1 million of its citizens who work in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries \u2013 the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain. They send some $50bn in annual remittances back home.<\/p>\n If the war is prolonged, Pant says, \u201cit will result in the loss of remittances \u2026 part of that also helps in balancing the trade balance\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cIt will hurt the wider economic robustness of the Indian economy. India\u2019s hope of continuing to have a high rate of growth will suffer,\u201d Pant said. \u201cIt\u2019s not simply a question of energy security \u2013 it is also a question of economic security.\u201d<\/p>\n Several Indian blue-collar workers and professionals across the Gulf have told Al Jazeera they fear potentially losing jobs if the war escalates further. Several oil and gas firms have shut operations amid the Iranian attacks.<\/p>\n \u201cI hope this does not prolong as I support my family with this job,\u201d an Indian construction worker, who chose to remain anonymous, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cEvery Indian who works in the Gulf supports at least four to five people back home. Forty to 50 million Indians directly benefit from their employment in the Gulf,\u201d Talmiz Ahmad, a former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n Another concern is the physical safety of people amid expanding Iranian attacks. Several Asian workers, including Indians, are among those killed in the Iranian attacks across the Gulf.<\/p>\n If the war escalates beyond control, India could be faced with the huge challenge of evacuating its people, who form the largest expatriate community in most Gulf nations.<\/p>\n Thousands of Western expats have already left or been evacuated by their countries, but the sheer scale of Indian population makes it a logistical nightmare. Some 35 million expats live in the Gulf countries, which have emerged as major economic and aviation hub in addition to the oil wealth. Of them, 9.1 million are from India \u2013 almost double the 4.9 million Pakistanis who come in second place.<\/p>\n Ahmad, the former Indian ambassador, said that \u201cthere is no way, in a war situation, any country, including India, can evacuate nine or 10 million people\u201d.<\/p>\n His message to Indians in the region:\u00a0\u201cWe have been shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf brethren in the good times; we will be shoulder to shoulder with them in the bad times.\u201d<\/p>\n Ahmad, however, pointed out that India had successfully evacuated nationals in past conflicts, including the 1991 Gulf War, when he was India\u2019s consul general in Jeddah. Nearly 200,000 Indian nationals were evacuated from Kuwait when Iraq invaded the Gulf nation in 1990.<\/p>\n Ahmad recalled how the Indian embassy in Saudi Arabia \u2013 he was ambassador to Riyadh at the time \u2013 also made contingency plans after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. \u201cVery quietly, we arranged everything \u2013 buses, tents, blankets and catering arrangements. We were fully prepared to take in several thousand people if they crossed the border,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe main point is we were ready.\u201d<\/p>\n India\u2019s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has set up a special control room to monitor and respond to queries regarding the situation, while embassies and consulates have set up round the clock helplines to assist Indian nationals in need. Indian embassies have also enabled the return of stranded Indian passengers via commercial flights and non-scheduled flights.<\/p>\n Pant from the Observer Research Foundation said that irrespective of how the war plays out, \u201cIndia\u2019s reliance on Middle Eastern oil will remain significant, though it may have to look for alternative sources if the conflict expands\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cI think Russian oil will certainly be an option. There has been engagement with the US on the energy question as well,\u201d he said. \u201cIndia has been buying energy from the US in the last decade, and that the US role has grown.\u201d<\/p>\n India\u2019s main opposition Congress party has criticised the government for its silence on the killing of Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. India has not issued any statement on Khamenei\u2019s killing, though its foreign secretary visited the Iranian embassy in New Delhi to sign a condolence book.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, New Delhi has condemned the Iranian attacks on the Gulf nations, with which it has close economic ties.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen the targeted killing of a foreign leader draws no clear defence of sovereignty or international law from our country, and impartiality is abandoned, it raises serious doubts about the direction and credibility of our foreign policy. Silence, in this instance, is not neutral,\u201d wrote Congress Parliamentary Party Chairperson Sonia Gandhi, in a newspaper column.<\/p>\n Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s government has also faced criticism over its refusal to condemn the sinking by a US submarine of an Iranian warship while it was returning home after participating in Indian-hosted military exercises. The ship was off the coast of Sri Lanka when it was torpedoed.<\/p>\n India has subsequently provided shelter to a second Iranian warship that also joined the exercises it hosted. And on Thursday, Modi spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian \u2013 their first conversation since the start of the war.<\/p>\n Still, the opposition and Modi\u2019s critics have also questioned the timing of the prime minister\u2019s visit to Israel days before the US-Israel attack on Iran. India is the largest buyer of Israeli weapons. Analysts say Modi\u2019s trip to Israel accorded legitimacy to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing an International Criminal Court (ICC)\u00a0arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Gaza.<\/p>\n \u201cNetanyahu, the most corrupt Israeli leader in recent memory, knows that his political survival depends on two things: the continuation of war in the Middle East and the stamp of legitimacy from foreign leaders. In this instance, Trump gave the former, while Modi obliged with the latter,\u201d wrote Srinath Raghavan, the author of Indira Gandhi and the Years that Transformed India, in a column.<\/p>\n Pant, however, supported the government\u2019s foreign policy stance.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the last few years, India\u2019s equities with the Arab states and Israel have grown so much that the India-Iran relationship has had difficulty matching that scale,\u201d he told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cIndia is reacting to the ground realities \u2026 India\u2019s interests have been dominated by the Arab world and the relationship with Israel rather than with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n As the United States-Israeli war on Iran completes two weeks, it has triggered a global energy crisis, even as Iran\u2019s retaliation threatens to pull the rest of the Middle East into the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20 to 30 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass, has effectively […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-canada-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14911\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Recommended Stories <\/h2>\n
Energy shortage<\/h2>\n
Indian expats in the Gulf<\/h2>\n
![\"Indian](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/2026-03-04T181803Z_680532597_RC2RXJACCFW0_RTRMADP_3_IRAN-CRISIS-GULF-BAHRAIN-SHELTERS-1773381135.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80\")
Can India evacuate nine million citizens?<\/h2>\n
What are India\u2019s interests?<\/h2>\n
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