\n<\/p>\n
The casualty rate for Russian soldiers in Ukraine increased to\u00a0a new monthly high<\/a>\u00a0in March, according to Ukraine\u2019s armed forces. They say drone production enabled a record number of strikes.<\/p>\n Ukraine tallied Russian casualties at 35,351 last month, with drones causing 96 per cent of them while artillery and small arms fire accounted for the rest. That casualty rate was a 29 per cent increase<\/a> on February, said Ukraine\u2019s commander in chief.<\/p>\n \u201cThese are clearly confirmed losses: we have video footage of each such strike in our system,\u201d\u00a0said Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo\u00a0Fedorov<\/a>.<\/p>\n The losses are slightly above a previous record set in December, and appear to confirm Ukraine\u2019s claim that\u00a0Russian casualty rates are rising inexorably this year.\u00a0Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel\u00a0Pavlo Palisa<\/a> told RBC-Ukraine that Russia had suffered 316 casualties for every square kilometre it captured in the first three months of 2026, compared with 120 casualties per square kilometre last year.<\/p>\n Ukraine\u2019s defence ministry said Russia has been unable to replace all of the losses since December. Russia aimed to recruit 409,000 contract soldiers this year, Ukraine\u2019s armed forces said in January.<\/p>\n That means a daily average recruitment rate of 1,120. But Ukraine\u2019s \u201cI Want to Live<\/a>\u201d initiative, which provides communication channels for Russian soldiers wishing to surrender, said Russia recruited 940 troops a day in the first quarter.<\/p>\n If sustained, that meant Russian recruitment was on track for a 65,000-man shortfall this year. Ukraine now sees manpower shortages as a Russian strategic weakness it can exploit. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, set a goal of 50,000 Russian casualties a month in January, which he called the \u201coptimal level\u201d to ensure Russian forces weaken irrecoverably.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are confidently moving towards our strategic goal \u2013 50,000+ eliminated occupiers per month,\u201d said the Ukrainian defence ministry.<\/p>\n The territory Russia is capturing for its mounting losses is also in long-term decline, according to estimates by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. Russian forces captured an average of 5.5sq km a day this year, compared to 10.66sq km a day in the middle of last year and 14.9sq km a day at the end of 2024, said the ISW.<\/p>\n Zelenskyy said the stark reality of manpower weakness lay behind Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s ceasefire demand that Ukraine hand over the heavily fortified quarter of the eastern Donetsk region it held last August.<\/p>\n \u201cThey believe that if we retreat, they won\u2019t lose hundreds of thousands of people,\u201d\u00a0Zelenskyy<\/a>\u00a0told the Associated Press in an interview this week.<\/p>\n Ukrainian officials credit drone production and training for their armed forces\u2019 growing lethality. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii<\/a> said the armed forces struck 151,207 targets in March using drones, a 50 per cent increase on February. That\u2019s the result of 11,000 drone sorties a day.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is all a historical maximum,\u201d Syrskii said.<\/p>\n Palisa<\/a> said that\u2019s because Ukraine\u2019s drone manufacturing had managed to outpace Russia\u2019s to achieve a 1.3:1 overall ratio in First Person View drones on the frontlines.<\/p>\n Other reports suggested Ukraine was raising drone production.\u00a0Fedorov<\/a> said Ukrainian interceptor drones shot down a record 33,000 Russian UAVs of various types in March \u2013 twice as many as in the previous month.<\/p>\n His deputy, Serhii \u201cFlash\u201d\u00a0Beskrestnov<\/a> said he was working with interceptor drone manufacturers to develop the next generation of interceptors capable of flying at 400-550km\/h to counter the jet-powered Shahed drones to which Russia was gradually converting.<\/p>\n Fire Point, Ukraine\u2019s biggest manufacturer of long-range drones used in the majority of strikes deep inside Russia, told Reuters<\/a> that it had designed two ballistic missiles of 300km and 850km range, which were approaching the deployment stage.<\/p>\n The longer-range type is capable of reaching Moscow.<\/p>\n Syrskii<\/a> thinks that Ukraine\u2019s forces, although still ceding small amounts of territory, have now gained \u201cthe strategic initiative\u201d because they \u201cdo not allow Russian troops to resume a large-scale offensive.\u201d<\/p>\n He said an increase in mid-range strikes against logistics, warehouses, command posts and oil depots 30-120 km into the Russian rear had been particularly effective in hamstringing Russian assaults \u2013 one of the top operational priorities.<\/p>\n Syrskii<\/a> said on April 5 that fighting was most intense in Dnipropetrovsk, where Ukraine\u2019s forces have recaptured eight settlements and 480sq km of territory.<\/p>\n Ukraine\u2019s leadership has long believed that Russia harbours territorial ambitions to seize the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions to control Ukraine\u2019s entire Black Sea coastline, and to carve out a buffer zone across northern Ukraine.<\/p>\nDrones are the key<\/h2>\n
Ukraine gains defensive \u2018strategic initiative\u2019<\/h2>\n