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United States President Donald Trump\u2019s planned naval blockade of Iran would further cripple international shipping, exacerbating the energy crisis roiling the global economy, analysts warn.<\/p>\n
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on Monday after Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz and \u201cinterdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran\u201d.<\/p>\n list of 4 items<\/span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n \u201cIran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION,\u201d Trump said on Truth Social.<\/p>\n Central Command, the US military\u2019s command responsible for operations in the Middle East, said in a statement the blockade would affect only ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, an apparent scaling-back of Trump\u2019s threat to fully block the strait.<\/p>\n Trita Parsi, cofounder of the US-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said a US blockade would have a cascading impact across the global economy.<\/p>\n \u201cAnything that currently takes more oil off the market will push prices up, which in turn will push gas prices further,\u201d Parsi told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n Oil could rise above $150 a barrel if the blockade were to trigger retaliation from the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, who could shut down Bab al-Mandeb, a strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, Parsi said.<\/p>\n The strait is an alternative export route for Gulf oil and gas.<\/p>\n A blockade aimed at depriving Iran of revenues would mark a sudden reversal in policy by Washington.<\/p>\n The Trump administration last month announced it would waive some sanctions on Iranian oil exports as a way to help ease the global energy crunch.<\/p>\n Iran has essentially closed the strait since the start of the US-Israeli war on February 28, allowing only a small number of ships to transit after vetting and authorisation.<\/p>\n About 3,200 vessels were stranded west of the strait due to the blockage as of Saturday, according to the maritime intelligence company Windward.<\/p>\n Anas Alhajji, former chief economist at NGP Energy Capital Management, said expected non-Iranian ships would likely keep avoiding the strait despite the US military\u2019s assurances that they will not be impeded because of elevated insurance premiums.<\/p>\n Ships may also fear retaliation from Iran, Alhajji said.<\/p>\n \u201cTherefore, the Trump blockade of the Iranian ports is an actual blockade of the Hormuz Strait,\u201d Alhajji told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n The resulting rise in oil and gas prices would also cause the cost of chemicals, fertilisers and raw materials used to make plastics to increase, according to analysts.<\/p>\n Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at the Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions, said he expects prices of many raw materials to rise within several weeks if Trump makes good on his blockade threat.<\/p>\n \u201cThe wild card really is the timeframe on this,\u201d Johnson told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cIf this is a negotiating tactic \u2013 remember we still have eight or nine days left of the ceasefire \u2013 then it may not really matter. But if this prolongs itself into the end of the month and into the first week of May, you will see prices all over the world spike for raw materials.\u201d<\/p>\n Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said the situation for global supply chains could get \u201cmuch worse\u201d under the blockade.<\/p>\n \u201cSome of the problems are obvious, but many are not. As an example, fabrics will get more expensive,\u201d Elms told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cPackaging is already a challenge for firms. Many can\u2019t get blister packs for pills or lids for consumer goods. We can expect consequences for food production later this year and into next year with fertiliser disruptions and lack of supply,\u201d Elms said.<\/p>\n Chad Norville, president of the oil and gas industry news site Rigzone, said Trump\u2019s threat is a further blow to confidence in the situation in the strait ever returning to normal.<\/p>\n The threat alone is likely to drive up insurance premiums for shipping and logistics companies and reduce the volume of trade passing the strait each day, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cDisruptions to shipping and elevated risk in the region were already well established due to the conflict,\u201d Norville told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n \u201cThis threat doesn\u2019t create that baseline. It amplifies it by reinforcing uncertainty around one of the world\u2019s most critical chokepoints.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n United States President Donald Trump\u2019s planned naval blockade of Iran would further cripple international shipping, exacerbating the energy crisis roiling the global economy, analysts warn. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on Monday after Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz and \u201cinterdict every vessel in international waters that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Recommended Stories <\/h2>\n
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