{"id":20193,"date":"2026-04-24T14:20:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T13:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/?p=20193"},"modified":"2026-04-24T14:20:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T13:20:05","slug":"how-long-can-iran-survive-the-uss-hormuz-blockade-us-israel-war-on-iran-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/?p=20193","title":{"rendered":"How long can Iran survive the US\u2019s Hormuz blockade? | US-Israel war on Iran News"},"content":{"rendered":"


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United States President Donald Trump has claimed Iran is \u201ccollapsing financially\u201d and said the country is losing millions of dollars a day due to Washington\u2019s naval blockade of Iranian ports.<\/p>\n

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: \u201cIran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately \u2013 Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!\u201d<\/p>\n

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list of 3 items<\/span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n

The US blockade of Iranian ports began at 14:00 GMT on April 13. Since then, the US has fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, and redirected ships in the open seas carrying cargo to or from Iran. Iran\u2019s armed forces have called this \u201can illegal act\u201d that \u201camounts to piracy\u201d.<\/p>\n

In response to the US naval blockade, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to all foreign shipping and has captured several foreign-flagged ships. Previously, it had allowed some ships deemed \u201cfriendly\u201d to Iran to pass.<\/p>\n

On April 19, Iran\u2019s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the \u201csecurity of the Strait of Hormuz is not free\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne cannot restrict Iran\u2019s oil exports while expecting free security for others,\u201d he wrote in a post on X.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone,\u201d he added. \u201cStability in global fuel prices depends on a guaranteed and lasting end to the economic and military pressure against Iran and its allies.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a statement on social media on Thursday, Iran\u2019s parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator in the ceasefire talks, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said a full ceasefire could only work if the US naval blockade is lifted.<\/p>\n

Analysts say the blockade is hurting Iran but believe the country has the economic and political will to sustain it.<\/p>\n

How long can Iran survive the naval blockade?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what we know:<\/p>\n

How is the naval blockade hurting Iran?<\/h2>\n

Iran exports oil, gas and other goods including petrochemicals, plastics and agricultural products by sea. Analysts say the US naval blockade of its ports, including in the Strait of Hormuz, could therefore affect this trade.<\/p>\n

Soon after the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, authorities in Tehran implemented the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the only waterway out of the Gulf, through which 20 percent of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped from Gulf producers in peacetime.<\/p>\n

The near-shutdown of the vital chokepoint sent global oil and gas prices soaring, and since then, Iran has controlled the strait. However, it has continued to export its own energy products through the waterway.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz\u00a0account<\/a> for about 80 percent of its total oil exports. According to Kpler, a trade intelligence firm, Iran exported 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March and has shipped 1.71 million bpd so far in April, compared with an average of 1.68 million bpd in 2025.<\/p>\n

From March 15 to April 14, it exported 55.22 million barrels of oil. The price per barrel of Iranian oil \u2013 across its three major variants, known as Iranian light, Iranian heavy and Forozan blend \u2013 has not fallen below $90 per barrel over the past month. On many days, the price has surpassed $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n

Even at the conservative estimate of $90 a barrel, Iran has earned at least $4.97bn over the past month from its ongoing oil exports.<\/p>\n

By contrast, in early February before the war started, Iran was earning about $115m a day from its crude oil exports, or $3.45bn in a month.<\/p>\n

Simply put, Iran has earned 40 percent more from oil exports in the past month than it did before the war.<\/p>\n

Stopping this is a key motivation behind the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.<\/p>\n

In an interview with Al Jazeera on April 14, Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera that the previous six weeks had been a boon for Iran in terms of oil revenues, but with the US blockade, that will change.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran has some buffer in the form of crude oil reserves in floating tanks \u2013 basically parked tankers \u2013 which was estimated at about 127 million barrels in February. But that doesn\u2019t mean that the blockade wouldn\u2019t hurt Iran,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

On Friday, Schneider told Al Jazeera that Iran, however, seems to be \u201cplaying the longer game\u201d and has anticipated and prepared for this sort of conflict to some degree.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe naval blockade has added economic strain, as several civilian ships have been captured in international waters. But it remains unclear how tight the blockade is, how many ships manage to pass given the considerable amount of floating Iranian oil, and how long Trump can maintain the blockade,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\"INTERACTIVE
(Al Jazeera)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Can the US keep the blockade going for long?<\/h2>\n

Schneider noted that Trump will face a legislative challenge by May 1, when the 60 days he can maintain a foreign offensive without congressional approval come to an end.<\/p>\n

Dire conditions have been reported on the ships that are upholding the blockade, he said, and it remains to be seen how China will react to the continuing seizure of ships that carry any of its cargo.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina has already said it sees the blockade of Chinese trade with Iran as unacceptable. Further, the closure of Hormuz by Iran in retaliation is hurting, if not the US itself that much, American allies in the region and globally, raising the pressure on Trump,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we can glean anything from the behaviour of the two sides, it is Iran that is signalling patience and Trump showing impatience,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Adam Ereli, a former US ambassador to Bahrain, told Al Jazeera\u2019s This is America programme that while the US blockade of Iranian ports and seizure of vessels transporting Iranian oil \u201cmakes sense\u201d as a policy, it may not work as intended due to domestic political considerations in the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Iranians have prepared for this, for this eventuality. They have their own plans. They\u2019ve got alternative means of storing their oil or selling their oil,\u201d Ereli told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven if they ran out of oil, they have ways to survive a very tough blockade and sanctions regime that, frankly, I think will outlast Trump\u2019s patience and the patience of the American people,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cRemember, this isn\u2019t just about moving soldiers and ships and planes around on a map. There\u2019s politics involved here in the United States,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump is nothing if not attuned to the political winds. And for that reason, I think that you\u2019ve got this Iran strategy on the one hand that runs up against an electoral strategy on another hand, and therefore, the question is, which one is going to give?\u201d<\/p>\n

Can Iran store the oil the US is blockading in the meantime?<\/h2>\n

Iran\u2019s domestic refineries have a capacity of 2.6 million bpd, according to consultancy FGE Energy. Its oil and gas production facilities are concentrated in southwestern provinces: Khuzestan for oil and Bushehr for gas and condensate from the South Pars gasfield.<\/p>\n

Iran is also the third-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and exports 90 percent of its crude oil via Kharg Island for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

The US naval blockade means Iran has to store more oil, and space could become tight.<\/p>\n

Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, told Al Jazeera that the current enforcement environment is expected to slow future Iranian loadings and exports, adding pressure on Iran\u2019s onshore inventories and eventually forcing production cuts.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, given there is still available storage capacity onshore (roughly covering 20 days of Iran\u2019s current production), we expect any production reduction to be gradual over the coming week, with a higher likelihood of acceleration into May,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

TankerTrackers, the maritime intelligence agency, said that at Kharg Island, to prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space, Iran has brought an old tanker named NASHA (9079107) out of retirement.<\/p>\n

\u201cShe\u2019s a 30yo [year old] VLCC [Very Large Crude Carrier] that\u2019s been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5-2 days,\u201d TankerTrackers said in a post on X, suggesting that the tanker is being used to store oil. It is unclear if the ship has a heading or course.<\/p>\n

Can Iran continue to earn revenues from oil?<\/h2>\n

Yes, analysts say that for a few months, Iran can continue to earn revenue from oil which is already in transit at sea.<\/p>\n

Kenneth Katzman, former Iran analyst at the Congressional Research Service in Washington, DC, said Iran is not exporting new oil amid the US blockade of Iranian ports, but Tehran has between 160 million and 170 million barrels of oil \u201cafloat\u201d on ships around the world currently.<\/p>\n

Those supplies, which transited the Strait of Hormuz before the US blockade was imposed, are on board hundreds of tankers and \u201cwaiting to be delivered\u201d, Katzman told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

Katzman said he had been informed by an Iranian professor that, based on those supplies, Tehran could have revenue flows that can last until August despite the US naval blockade.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhich is a long time. Does President Trump have until August? Probably not,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s probably going to have to look at kinetic escalation if he wants to bring this to the conclusion that he wants, or he\u2019s going to have to accept less than the deal he ideally wants,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Iranian ships will still have to avoid US naval ships on the open ocean, as the US Navy has also recently intercepted ships carrying Iranian cargoes.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday this week, for example, the US military intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in \u200cAsian waters, Reuters reported, and was said to be redirecting them away from their positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka.<\/p>\n

Xu said that according to Kpler\u2019s data, there is currently around 183 million barrels of Iranian crude oil on the water.<\/p>\n

\u201cOf this, approximately 14.7 million barrels is in the Middle East Gulf, 11.9 million barrels in the Gulf of Oman, 9 million barrels in the Arabian Sea, and 6.5 million barrels in the central Indian Ocean. The remainder is positioned around the Malacca Strait, the South China Sea, and areas closer to China,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u2018It remains unclear where the effective boundary of US enforcement lies \u2013 specifically, whether it is primarily focused between the Persian Gulf and the Malacca Strait, or if there are intentions to extend enforcement further into the South China Sea,\u201d she noted.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy view is that the US is unlikely to escalate too aggressively ahead the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, but will continue selective interceptions of Iranian cargoes to maintain pressure on both Iran and China. That said, China is expected to keep purchasing Iranian crude as long as flows remain feasible, and Iran will continue efforts to move barrels east,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

How else can Iran earn revenue?<\/h2>\n

Besides oil revenue, Iran is also currently receiving revenue from a \u201ctoll booth\u201d system that the country imposed on the Strait of Hormuz in March.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, Iran\u2019s deputy parliament speaker Hamidreza Haji-Babaei said Tehran\u2019s central bank had received the first revenues from tolls imposed since the start of the war, according to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency. It is unclear how much that toll revenue is.<\/p>\n

Iranian politician Alaeddin Boroujerdi told<\/a> the United Kingdom-based, Farsi-language satellite TV channel Iran International in March that the country has been charging some vessels as much as $2m each to pass through the strait.<\/p>\n

According to Lloyd\u2019s List, the shipping news outlet, at least two vessels that have transited the strait so far have paid fees in yuan, China\u2019s currency. Lloyd\u2019s List reported that one \u201ctransit was brokered by a Chinese maritime services company acting as an intermediary, which also handled the payment to Iranian authorities\u201d. It is, however, not clear how much the vessels paid.<\/p>\n

How resilient is Iran\u2019s leadership?<\/h2>\n

In recent days, while pressuring Iran to negotiate a ceasefire deal, US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iranians are \u201chaving a very hard time figuring out who their leader is\u201d, alleging that there is \u201ccrazy\u201d infighting between \u201cmoderates\u201d and \u201chardliners\u201d in Tehran.<\/p>\n

But the country\u2019s officials have insisted that Iran\u2019s government is united.<\/p>\n

Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran\u2019s first vice president, said on Thursday: \u201cOur political diversity is our democracy, yet in times of peril, we are a \u2018Single Hand\u2019 under one flag. To protect our soil and dignity, we transcend all labels. We are one soul, one nation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also dismissed allegations that the Iranian military may be at odds with the political leadership.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe failure of Israel\u2019s terrorist killings is reflected in how Iran\u2019s state institutions continue to act with unity, purpose, and discipline,\u201d he wrote on X, referring to the assassinations of Iranian political and military figures Israel has carried out in recent weeks.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe battlefield and diplomacy are fully coordinated fronts in the same war. Iranians are all united, more than ever before.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of the strongest messages of unity came from Iran\u2019s President Masoud Pezeshkian.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Iran, there are no radicals or moderates,\u201d he said on X.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are all Iranians and revolutionaries. With ironclad unity of nation and state and obedience to the Supreme Leader, we will make the aggressor regret.\u201d<\/p>\n

How strong is Iran militarily?<\/h2>\n

Iran has demonstrated considerable military resilience in the face of weeks of US-Israeli strikes through its use of asymmetric warfare.<\/p>\n

This includes the use of guerrilla tactics, cyberattacks, arming and supporting proxy armed groups and other indirect tools.<\/p>\n

During its war with the US and Israel, Iran has targeted energy infrastructure in Israel and across the Gulf, threatened to target banking institutions and targeted US data centres of technology companies such as Amazon in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.<\/p>\n

Iran has also blocked the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly placed mines in the strait to disrupt shipping, sending global oil prices soaring.<\/p>\n

Since the US began its naval blockade of Iranian ports in mid-April, Iranian officials have repeatedly promised that their country will defend itself and respond to any US attack.<\/p>\n

Earlier this week, after the US military said it had seized an Iranian vessel and ordered dozens of others to turn around, Iran also retaliated by capturing foreign commercial vessels around the Hormuz Strait, which it said violated naval regulations.<\/p>\n

Ereli, the former US ambassador, told Al Jazeera that Iran and the IRGC have \u201crevolutionary fervour\u201d, which means they can \u201csurvive\u201d. \u201cThey can tolerate pain for a lot longer than I think most American decision makers and planners calculate,\u201d Ereli said.<\/p>\n

Ereli said it was unknown how long Tehran could last under \u201csiege conditions\u201d imposed by the US, but probably a lot longer than the US anticipates.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think they can go a lot longer, especially than most people imagine, and especially when it comes to kneeling to the Americans,\u201d Ereli said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a level of pride and survival. They\u2019re at war with us, and for them it\u2019s a war of necessity. They\u2019ve got to survive,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

United States President Donald Trump has claimed Iran is \u201ccollapsing financially\u201d and said the country is losing millions of dollars a day due to Washington\u2019s naval blockade of Iranian ports. In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: \u201cIran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15846,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-explained"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20193","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20193"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20193\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15846"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}