leaked RSF document obtained by Darfur24<\/a>, a local news outlet following developments in the region.<\/p>\nThe nomadic \u201cArab\u201d fighters that mostly make up the RSF\u2019s ranks besieged el-Fasher for more than 500 days before carrying out a campaign of violence against sedentary \u201cnon-Arab\u201d tribes, in what many observers have termed a genocide.<\/p>\n
Relief workers, analysts and local monitors fear the RSF could subject civilians in el-Obeid to a similar fate.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy forecast has always been that el-Obeid will be under [RSF] siege by Thanksgiving,\u201d said Nathaniel Raymond, the executive director of the Yale Humanitarian Lab that provides satellite imagery analysis of the war in Sudan, referring to the holiday in the United States that falls on November 27 this year.<\/p>\n
Raymond added that the RSF appears to be trying to first capture the town of Babanusa in West Kordofan, which it is currently besieging. That way, it can then use the town to support an all-out assault on el-Obeid.<\/p>\n
The RSF will likely overburden SAF in Babanusa by launching its wide arsenal of drones from the airport in el-Fasher, Raymond explained.<\/p>\n
\u201cBabanusa is really the last line of defence [for the SAF] against the coming onslaught against el-Obeid,\u201d he told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Looming battle<\/h2>\n
As the battlefield shifts to Kordofan, the SAF is reportedly stepping up recruitment and deploying thousands of newly recruited civilians turned fighters \u2013 known as the mobilised or \u201cmustanfereen\u201d \u2013 to el-Obeid.<\/p>\n
SAF recently opened up a training camp in North Kordofan to recruit young men eager to fight against the RSF after the fall of el-Fasher, according to Mohamed el-Fatih, a Sudanese journalist and analyst covering developments across the country.<\/p>\n
Fighters from SAF-aligned armed groups \u2013 known as the Joint Forces, which were instrumental in holding off the RSF in el-Fasher for a year and a half \u2013 are also present in el-Obeid, according to a local relief worker who requested anonymity due to the tense security environment.<\/p>\n
He said that most civilians don\u2019t leave their homes or displacement camps after sundown out of fear of being robbed by armed men on the street.<\/p>\n
Other civilians are reportedly fleeing to neighbouring White Nile state, which connects to the only road out of el-Fasher, according to local monitors.<\/p>\n
Hafiz Mohamed, the director of local human rights organisation Justice Africa, told Al Jazeera that more people are trying to get out before the RSF besieges the city.<\/p>\n
\u201cSome people are leaving \u2026 because they don\u2019t have faith that el-Obeid won\u2019t eventually fall. They don\u2019t have confidence in the army,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Mohammed Ibrahim, a civil servant with the SAF-backed Port Sudan government who works for the economic ministry in el-Obeid, confirmed that civilians were very scared of an RSF attack after the group took el-Fasher.<\/p>\n
Many people, he noted, were considering fleeing further north after a series of incriminating videos showed RSF fighters perpetrating mass killings and other atrocities in North Darfur.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe SAF has sent reinforcements all around the city \u2026 and people are calmer now \u2026 everyone is ready to confront the RSF if they attack,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Outgunned and outmanned?<\/h2>\n
Despite the SAF\u2019s recruitment drive to defend el-Obeid, it still lacks the arsenal and manpower to fortify el-Obeid, according to Raymond, the researcher from Yale.<\/p>\n
He said the SAF typically relies on close air cover, either from warplanes or helicopters, to assist ground infantry. However, over the past year, the RSF has acquired man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), which are a significant threat to low-flying aircraft.<\/p>\n
The RSF has had MANPADS since at least 2024, and they have proven instrumental in combating SAF\u2019s airpower.<\/p>\n
\u201cSAF has one play right now and that\u2019s to curl up and prepare for siege mode \u2026 that\u2019s because they no longer have [air supremacy], which was their biggest advantage,\u201d Raymond told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Regional states backing the SAF, such as Turkiye and Egypt, could step up arms shipments to try and level the playing field.<\/p>\n
The former is reported to have sold the SAF its highly regarded Bayraktar drones throughout the war \u2013 weapons that helped it recapture Gezira State and the capital Khartoum from the RSF earlier this year.<\/p>\n
In addition, the SAF has recently requested access to Egypt\u2019s air-defence systems to shoot down RSF drones.<\/p>\n
However, Egypt is concerned about getting directly involved in the war, according to an Africa Intelligence<\/a> report, which specialises in obtaining geopolitical and business intelligence.<\/p>\nTheir analysis was based on open-source intelligence that tracked Egyptian and Turkish cargo flights to Port Sudan, as well as on defence sources, which claim to have intimate knowledge of the military planning of both countries.<\/p>\n
Yet, even if the SAF acquires new upgraded weaponry from its allies, it still may not be enough to hold on to el-Obeid, said Raymond.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese weapons are not a panacea,\u201d he told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe SAF still doesn\u2019t have enough men bearing arms to control the vast area. They are running out of men,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On the morning of October 25, as Sudan\u2019s Rapid Support Forces stormed the town of Bara in North Kordofan state, Sadiq Ahmed thought about his two daughters and what would happen to them if he couldn\u2019t protect them. RSF fighters began raiding homes, looking for loot, as well as women and girls, said Sadiq. Recommended […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}