On December 16, Sudanese political parties, armed movements, civil society organisations, and prominent political figures signed a nine-point political roadmap in Nairobi, presenting it as a civilian-led initiative aimed at ending Sudan\u2019s war and restoring a democratic transition.<\/p>\n
Framed as an antiwar, pro-peace platform, it seeks to position civilians as a \u201cthird pole\u201d against the two military actors in Sudan\u2019s conflict: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).<\/p>\n
Its authors say it represents an attempt to reclaim political agency for civilians after months of marginalisation by armed actors and foreign mediators, even though the declaration does not outline any concrete steps towards military reform.<\/p>\n
The roadmap reignited longstanding debates within Sudanese political and civic circles about representation, legitimacy, and the persistent dominance of elite-driven civilian politics.<\/p>\n
The roadmap<\/h2>\n
The Nairobi declaration emerged after a statement released by the Quad \u2013 Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States \u2013 in September.<\/p>\n
The Quad statement called for an immediate three-month truce to lead to a permanent ceasefire, humanitarian access to help civilians, and the creation of a political process for a civilian transition.<\/p>\n
It also emphasised excluding remnants of former President Omar al-Bashir\u2019s regime and reforming Sudan\u2019s security forces under civilian oversight, all points that the Nairobi declaration echoed.<\/p>\n
The Nairobi signatories included the National Umma Party, the Sudanese Congress Party, civil society organisations \u2013 including the Darfur Lawyers Association and the Coordination of Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees \u2013 and the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-AW) led by Abdelwahid al-Nur.<\/p>\n
Former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who led Sudan\u2019s transitional civilian government from al-Bashir\u2019s overthrow in 2019 until the October 2021 military coup by the SAF and the RSF working in concert, also signed the declaration.<\/p>\n
It was likewise endorsed by al-Nur, longtime leader of the SLM-AW armed group that controls Jebel Marra in Darfur and has historically rejected what he describes as \u201celite-driven\u201d political settlements.<\/p>\n
Falling short<\/h2>\n
Sudanese researcher Hamid Khalafallah told Al Jazeera that despite the intent to present a civilian leadership, the declaration falls short of reflecting Sudan\u2019s broader civic movement.<\/p>\n
The Nairobi coalition, he argued, mirrors earlier civilian formations that failed to connect with Sudanese citizens, particularly those most affected by the war.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s in many ways a reproduction of former groups that have \u2026 struggled to represent the Sudanese people,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s still very much an elite group that does politics in the same way they always have.\u201d<\/p>\n
Although resistance committees \u2013 neighbourhood groups that emerged from Sudan\u2019s protest movement and helped topple al-Bashir in 2019 \u2013 were referenced in the declaration, no committees formally endorsed or signed it.<\/p>\n Drafts were reportedly shared with some grassroots groups, but the process advanced without waiting for collective deliberation \u2013 reinforcing concerns that civilians on the ground remain politically instrumentalised rather than empowered.<\/p>\n While al-Nur\u2019s participation was hailed by some as a breakthrough, Khalafallah questioned the underlying motivation, arguing that his inclusion was intended to counterbalance rival military-aligned forces rather than transform civilian politics.<\/p>\n Before the Nairobi declaration, there were three main civilian coalitions in Sudan, each aligned with a warring party or accused of such an alliance.<\/p>\n Tasis is the coalition of political parties and armed movements that was founded in February 2025, before forming the RSF\u2019s parallel government in July 2025, while the Democratic Bloc is a grouping of parties and armed groups aligned with the SAF.<\/p>\n Finally comes Hamdok\u2019s Sumoud, comprising political parties and civil society organisations and accused by SAF of supporting the RSF.<\/p>\n European officials have distanced themselves from the Nairobi initiative.<\/p>\n A senior European Union diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera that Brussels does not see the Nairobi roadmap as the foundation for a unified civilian process.<\/p>\n \u201cWe would like to see only one civilian process, that\u2019s why we are helping the African Union [AU],\u201d the source said. \u201cEverything else is a distraction, like this Nairobi one.\u201d<\/p>\n According to the EU official, the priority is not multiplying civilian platforms but consolidating them under a single credible framework, led by the AU and broadly accepted by Sudanese society.<\/p>\n \u201cOur aim is to create a credible third pole \u2013 versus RSF and SAF,\u201d the source said. \u201cAn inclusive one, supported by most Sudanese citizens.\u201d<\/p>\n The EU plans to build a broad coalition that can take the lead after the Quad\u2019s humanitarian truce and ceasefire proposals are accepted by the SAF and the RSF, including reforms placing security forces under civilian-led oversight.<\/p>\n The EU\u2019s language reflects growing frustration among international actors with Sudan\u2019s fragmented civilian landscape, while insisting that abandoning it would legitimise military rule by default.<\/p>\n \u201cOf course, we are not naive that civilians will take over tomorrow,\u201d the source said. \u201cBut we have to stand for our values.\u201d<\/p>\n The EU official was blunt in assessing the conduct of Sudan\u2019s warring parties, rejecting narratives that frame either side as a governing authority.<\/p>\n \u201cI would not call what RSF does in Darfur \u2018governing\u2019, SAF is a bit better \u2013 but not much,\u201d the source said.<\/p>\n \u201cLook at the oil deal they did,\u201d the official added. \u201cMoney is important; people are not.\u201d<\/p>\n They referred to the latest agreement between the SAF and the RSF \u2013 under South Sudanese mediation \u2013 that both would withdraw from the Heglig oil facility, with South Sudanese troops deployed to secure the refinery following SAF\u2019s pullout and the RSF\u2019s capture of the site.<\/p>\n US-Africa policy expert Cameron Hudson told Al Jazeera that the Nairobi declaration appears to mimic the Quad\u2019s recent statement, effectively presenting to the international community a roadmap that aligns with pre-existing objectives to gain Quad support.<\/p>\n \u201cMy sense is that the Nairobi declaration reverse engineers what the Quad has said,\u201d Hudson said, suggesting that the initiative is designed more to attract international endorsement than to build genuine domestic consensus.<\/p>\n Hudson warned that this approach mishandles the sequencing of Sudan\u2019s political transition, \u201cprematurely\u201d linking ceasefire efforts with reforms of the army or other political changes, arguing that these should remain on separate tracks until violence subsides.<\/p>\n \u201cIf what the Quad wants is an unconditional ceasefire, then it needs to pursue that, not create opportunities to trade a ceasefire for political assurances during a transition,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cFor that reason, it is premature to be talking about reforming the army or other political reforms. These should remain in separate tracks for now.\u201d<\/p>\n The tension is stark. The Quad and the European Union increasingly state that neither the SAF nor the RSF should have a political future and that remnants of the Bashir regime must be excluded entirely.<\/p>\n Yet both armed forces remain indispensable to any cessation of hostilities, creating an unresolved contradiction at the heart of international strategy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n On December 16, Sudanese political parties, armed movements, civil society organisations, and prominent political figures signed a nine-point political roadmap in Nairobi, presenting it as a civilian-led initiative aimed at ending Sudan\u2019s war and restoring a democratic transition. Framed as an antiwar, pro-peace platform, it seeks to position civilians as a \u201cthird pole\u201d against the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6192\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Abdallah](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/71407028_10157444060013260_2974189819401338880_n-1766314792.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80\")
Europe\u2019s one-track civilian strategy<\/h2>\n
Warring parties as spoilers?<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"