\n<\/p>\n
Yangon, Myanmar \u2013<\/strong> Voters in parts of Myanmar are heading to the polls on Sunday for an election that critics view as a bid by the country\u2019s generals to legitimise military rule, nearly five years after they overthrew the government of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.<\/p>\n The multi-phased election is unfolding amid a raging civil war, with ethnic armed groups and opposition militias fighting the military for control of vast stretches of territory, stretching from the borderlands with Bangladesh and India in the west, across the central plains, to the frontiers with China and Thailand in the north and east.<\/p>\n list of 4 items<\/span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n In central Sagaing, voting will take place in only a third of the region\u2019s townships on Sunday. Another third will be covered during a second and third phase in January, while voting has been cancelled altogether in the remainder.<\/p>\n Fighting, including air raids and arson, has intensified in several areas.<\/p>\n \u201cThe military is deploying troops and burning villages under the guise of \u2018territorial dominance\u2019,\u201d said Esther J, a journalist based there. \u201cPeople here are saying this is being done for the election.\u201d<\/p>\n In most of the region, \u201cwe haven\u2019t seen a single activity related to the election,\u201d she said. \u201cNo one is campaigning, organising or telling people to vote.\u201d<\/p>\n Across Myanmar, voting has been cancelled in 56 of the country\u2019s 330 townships, with more cancellations expected. The conflict, triggered by the 2021 coup, has killed an estimated 90,000 people and displaced more than 3.5 million, according to monitoring groups and the United Nations. It has left nearly half of the country\u2019s population of 55 million in need of humanitarian assistance.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople [in Sagaing] say they have no interest in the election,\u201d said Esther J. \u201cThey do not want the military. They want the revolutionary forces to win.\u201d<\/p>\n For much of last year, the Myanmar military appeared to be losing ground.<\/p>\n A coordinated offensive launched in late 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance \u2013 a coalition of ethnic armed groups and opposition militias \u2013 seized vast areas, nearly pushing the military out of western Rakhine state and capturing a major regional military headquarters in the northeastern city of Lashio, about 120km (75 miles) from the Chinese border. Armed with commercial drones modified to carry bombs, the rebels were soon threatening the country\u2019s second-largest city of Mandalay.<\/p>\n The operation \u2013 dubbed 1027 \u2013 marked the most significant threat to the military since the 2021 coup.<\/p>\n But the momentum has stalled this year, largely because of China\u2019s intervention.<\/p>\n In April, Beijing brokered a deal in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army agreed to surrender the city of Lashio, without a single shot being fired. The military subsequently reclaimed key towns in north and central Myanmar, including Nawnghkio, Thabeikkyin, Kyaukme and Hsipaw. In late October, China brokered another agreement for the Ta\u2019ang National Liberation Army to withdraw from the gold mining towns of Mogok and Momeik.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Myanmar military is definitely resurgent,\u201d said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). \u201cIf this current trend continues, the Myanmar military could be back in a relatively dominant position in a year or so, maybe two.\u201d<\/p>\n The military turned the tide by launching a conscription drive, expanding its drone fleet and putting more combat credible soldiers in charge. Since announcing mandatory military service in February 2024, it has recruited between 70,000 to 80,000 people, researchers say.<\/p>\n \u201cThe conscription drive has been unexpectedly effective,\u201d said Min Zaw Oo, executive director at the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security. \u201cEconomic hardship and political polarisation pushed many young men into the ranks,\u201d he said, with many of the recruits technically adept and serving as snipers and drone operators. \u201cThe military\u2019s drone units now outmatch those of the opposition,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a monitoring group, air and drone attacks by the military have increased by roughly 30 percent this year. The group recorded 2,602 air attacks that it said killed 1,971 people \u2013 the highest toll since the coup. It said Myanmar now ranks third in the world for drone operations, behind only Ukraine and Russia.<\/p>\n China, meanwhile, has applied pressure beyond brokering ceasefires.<\/p>\n According to analysts, Beijing pressed one of the strongest armed ethnic groups, the United Wa State Army, to cut off weapons supplies to other rebels, resulting in ammunition shortages across the country. The opposition forces have also suffered from disunity. \u201cThey are as fragmented as ever,\u201d said Michaels of the IISS. \u201cRelationships between these groups are deteriorating, and the ethnic armed organisations are abandoning the People\u2019s Defence Forces,\u201d he said, referring to the opposition militias that mobilised after the coup.<\/p>\n China, observers say, acted for fear of a state collapse in Myanmar.<\/p>\n \u201cThe situation in Myanmar is a \u2018hot mess\u2019, and it\u2019s on China\u2019s border,\u201d said Einar Tangen, a Beijing-based analyst at the Centre for International Governance Innovation. Beijing, he said, wants to see peace in Myanmar to protect key trade routes, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor that, when completed, will link its landlocked Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean and a deep seaport there.<\/p>\n Tangen said Beijing harbours no love for the military, but sees few alternatives.<\/p>\n Indeed, after the coup, Beijing refrained from normalising relations with Myanmar or recognising coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. But in a sign of shifting policy, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Min Aung Hlaing twice this year. During talks in China\u2019s Tianjin in August, Xi told Min Aung Hlaing that Beijing supports Myanmar in safeguarding its sovereignty, as well as \u201cin unifying all domestic political forces\u201d and \u201crestoring stability and development\u201d.<\/p>\n Tangen said China sees the election as a path to more predictable governance. Russia and India, too, have backed the process, though the UN and several Western nations have called it a \u201csham\u201d. But Tangen noted that while Western nations denounce the military, they have done little to engage with the rebels. The United States has dealt further blows by cutting off foreign aid and ending visa protections for Myanmar citizens.<\/p>\n \u201cThe West is paying lip service to the humanitarian crisis. China\u2019s trying to do something but doesn\u2019t know how to solve it,\u201d Tangen said.<\/p>\n The military\u2019s territorial gains, meanwhile, remain modest.<\/p>\n In northern Shan state, Myanmar\u2019s largest, the military has recaptured only 11.3 percent of the territory it had lost, according to the Institute for Strategy and Policy \u2013 Myanmar, a think tank. But it is western Rakhine State that remains the \u201clarger and more intense theatre of war\u201d, said Khin Zaw Win, a Yangon-based analyst.<\/p>\n There, the Arakan Army is pushing beyond the borders of the state, overrunning multiple bases, and pushing east in a move that threatens the military\u2019s defence industries. In northern Kachin state, the battle for Bhamo, a gateway to the north, is approaching its first anniversary, while in the southeast, armed groups have taken a \u201cnumber of important positions along the border with Thailand\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n So the military\u2019s recent gains in other parts were \u201cnot that significant\u201d, he added.<\/p>\n ACLED, the war monitor, also described the military\u2019s successes as \u201climited in the context of the overall conflict\u201d. In a briefing this month, Su Mon, a senior analyst at ACLED, wrote that the military remains in a \u201cweakened position compared to before the 2021 coup and Operation 1027 and is unable to assert effective control over the areas it has recently retaken\u201d.<\/p>\n Still, the gains give the military \u201cmore confidence to proceed with the elections\u201d, said Khin Zaw Win.<\/p>\n The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which has fielded the most candidates, is expected to form the next government. Aung San Suu Kyi\u2019s National League for Democracy has been dissolved, and she remains held incommunicado, while other smaller opposition parties have been barred from participating.<\/p>\n Khin Zaw Win said he does not expect the election to \u201caffect the war to any appreciable extent\u201d and that the military might even be \u201cdeluded to go for a complete military victory\u201d.<\/p>\n But on the other hand, China could help de-escalate, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cChina\u2019s mediation efforts are geared toward a negotiated settlement,\u201d he noted. \u201cIt expects a \u2018payoff\u2019 and does not want a protracted war that will harm its larger interests.\u201d<\/p>\n Zaheena Rasheed wrote and reported from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and Cape Diamond reported from Yangon, Myanmar.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n Yangon, Myanmar \u2013 Voters in parts of Myanmar are heading to the polls on Sunday for an election that critics view as a bid by the country\u2019s generals to legitimise military rule, nearly five years after they overthrew the government of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The multi-phased election is unfolding amid a raging […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6723,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-pacific"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6722"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6722\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6723"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Recommended Stories <\/h2>\n
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