end of list<\/span><\/section>\nAlthough Washington\u2019s tensions with Caracas and Tehran have different roots and dynamics, analysts say Trump\u2019s move against Maduro raises the prospects of war with Iran.<\/p>\n
\u201cA new lawlessness makes everything less stable and war more likely,\u201d said Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether Trump becomes enamoured with \u2018surgical\u2019 regime change, or gives Netanyahu a US imprimatur for similar actions, it\u2019s hard not to see how this gives momentum for the many actors pushing for renewed war with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added that Maduro\u2019s abduction could prompt Iran \u201cto do something that triggers military action\u201d, including developing its own military deterrence or preempting US or Israeli strikes.<\/p>\n
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, also said the US actions in Venezuela show Trump\u2019s maximalist aims, further dimming the chances of diplomacy.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat I see and hear from Tehran is that they are not interested in negotiating with the Trump administration the way this administration signals that they want total surrender,\u201d Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo, not much chance for diplomacy at the moment, which then opens the path to the opposite road, that is conflict. Right now, Israel, Iran and the US are on a path to potential conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n
Abdi echoed that assessment. \u201cThis action reinforces every doubt and suspicion about US intentions, and gives more credence to those in Iran who say engaging the US is useless and [that] developing a nuclear deterrent is vital,\u201d he told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Iran-Venezuela alliance<\/h2>\n
The US raid that abducted Maduro and brought him to the US came after months of intensifying rhetoric from Trump against the Venezuelan government.<\/p>\n
US officials have accused Maduro of leading a drug organisation, and Trump and his aides have been increasingly arguing that Washington is entitled to Venezuela\u2019s vast oil reserves.<\/p>\n
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also been emphasising Maduro\u2019s ties to Iran, accusing Caracas, without evidence, of providing the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah a foothold in the Western Hemisphere.<\/p>\n
Maduro is a close ally of Iran, and the two heavily sanctioned countries have been pushing to deepen their trade ties, which are estimated to be in the billions of dollars.<\/p>\n
So, with Maduro gone, Iran\u2019s small network of allies may shrink further, after the fall of leader Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon.<\/p>\n
The Iranian government was quick to condemn the US attack on Venezuela, calling on the United Nations to intervene and halt the \u201cunlawful aggression\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe US military aggression against an independent state that is a member of the UN represents a grave breach of regional and international peace and security,\u201d the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.<\/p>\n
\u201cIts consequences affect the entire international system and will further expose the UN Charter-based order to erosion and destruction.\u201d<\/p>\n
On Saturday, Rubio suggested that Maduro\u2019s abduction carried a message to all of Washington\u2019s rivals in the Trump era.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u200b\u200bWhen he tells you that he\u2019s going to do something, when he tells you he\u2019s going to address a problem, he means it,\u201d the top US diplomat told reporters.<\/p>\n
But Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe will not give in to the enemy,\u201d Khamenei wrote in a social media post. \u201cWe will bring the enemy to its knees.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s threats<\/h2>\n
Last week, Trump hosted Netanyahu in Florida and threatened to bomb Iran again if the country rebuilds its missile or nuclear programmes.<\/p>\n
\u201cNow I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we\u2019re going to have to knock them down,\u201d Trump said. \u201cWe\u2019ll knock them down. We\u2019ll knock the hell out of them.\u201d<\/p>\n
Israel launched a war against Iran in June, killing the country\u2019s top military commanders, several nuclear scientists and hundreds of civilians.<\/p>\n
The US joined in the attack, bombing Iran\u2019s three main nuclear sites.<\/p>\n
While Trump has often reiterated that the US strikes \u201cobliterated\u201d Iran\u2019s nuclear programme and celebrated the war as a success, the Iranian governing system survived the assault.<\/p>\n
Tehran responded with barrages of hundreds of rockets against Israel, dozens of which penetrated the country\u2019s multi-layered air defences, and Iranian forces were able to keep firing until the final moments of the war, before the ceasefire came into effect.<\/p>\n
Some critics argue that regime change was and remains Israel\u2019s goal in Iran, and Trump appears to be increasingly buying into that objective.<\/p>\n
On Friday, Trump warned that the US is \u201clocked and loaded\u201d and ready to attack Iran if the Iranian government kills protesters amid the ongoing but sporadic antigovernment demonstrations across the country.<\/p>\n
He renewed the same threat late on Sunday. \u201cIf they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they\u2019re going to get hit very hard by the United States,\u201d the US president said.<\/p>\n
So, could the US carry out a Venezuela-style government decapitation in Iran?<\/p>\n
NIAC\u2019s Abdi noted that Israel has already tried to kill the country\u2019s top leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, in June.<\/p>\n
Trump also repeatedly threatened Khamenei with assassination, and Israeli officials confirmed that they sought to \u201celiminate\u201d the supreme leader during the war.<\/p>\n
\u201cIranian officials have said they accordingly have plans in place so that killing or removing senior leaders does not paralyse or topple the regime,\u201d Abdi said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt would be far messier to run a \u2018snatch and grab\u2019 operation on Iran, given their ability to retaliate against US interests and personnel.\u201d<\/p>\n
Venezuela without Maduro<\/h2>\n
Even in Venezuela, removing Maduro has not translated into a regime collapse, at least for now.<\/p>\n
On Sunday, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, now Venezuela\u2019s acting president, stressed that Maduro remains the country\u2019s only leader and condemned the US attack.<\/p>\n
She also suggested that Israel was involved in the abduction of Maduro, a vocal critic of the US ally.<\/p>\n
\u201cGovernments around the world are shocked that the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has become the victim and target of an attack of this nature, which undoubtedly has Zionist undertones,\u201d Rodriguez said.<\/p>\n
Trump responded by threatening the acting Venezuelan president, telling The Atlantic magazine that she would pay a \u201cvery big price, probably bigger than Maduro\u201d if she did not acquiesce to US demands.<\/p>\n
So, the US president\u2019s plans for \u201crunning\u201d Venezuela and taking its oil are not complete yet, and will likely require more military action.<\/p>\n
\u201cI doubt Venezuela can be a \u2018one and done\u2019 or a quick \u2018in and out\u2019 situation, which is Trump\u2019s favourite model. His brand is that he engages in quick shows of force, not forever wars,\u201d Mortazavi said.<\/p>\n
She cited swift operations that Trump has ordered, including the killing of ISIL (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, the assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, and the attack on Iran\u2019s nuclear sites in June.<\/p>\n
\u201cMost Americans are tired of forever wars, especially in the Middle East, so the Trump administration knows they can\u2019t sell more forever wars to Americans,\u201d Mortazavi said.<\/p>\n
But Trump has already floated the prospect of a ground invasion of Venezuela.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re not afraid of boots on the ground,\u201d he said. \u201cWe don\u2019t mind saying it, but we\u2019re going to make sure that that country is run properly. We\u2019re not doing this in vain.\u201d<\/p>\n
Abdi said that a long-term US involvement in Venezuela could indirectly stave off war with Iran.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is also the possibility that the US gets bogged down in \u2018running\u2019 Venezuela and doesn\u2019t have the bandwidth to wage, or to support Israel launching, the next Iran war,\u201d he told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran was next on the menu after the US invaded Iraq in 2003, and we know what happened there, and Trump may not want to pronounce \u2018mission accomplished\u2019 just yet.\u201d<\/p>\n
The oil question<\/h2>\n
Still, some critics \u2013 including Republican US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene \u2013 have argued that if the US succeeds in controlling Venezuela\u2019s oil resources, it will be able to offset energy market disruptions from a possible war with Iran.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe next obvious observation is that, by removing Maduro, this is a clear move for control over Venezuelan oil supplies that will ensure stability for the next obvious regime change war in Iran,\u201d Greene wrote on X on Saturday.<\/p>\n
About 20 percent of the world\u2019s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran may push to shut down in the case of an all-out war.<\/p>\n
Abdi said that Venezuelan oil \u201ccould theoretically provide some cushion\u201d to the loss of exports from the Gulf region.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut this would mean a lot of things going right for the US in Venezuela, and it is probably far too soon to make that judgement,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Washington, DC \u2013 Hours after the United States announced the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Israeli politician Yair Lapid issued a warning to Tehran: \u201cThe regime in Iran should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela.\u201d The forcible removal of Maduro from power came less than a week after US President Donald […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-canada-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7518"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7518\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}