Kampala, Uganda \u2013<\/strong> When Bobi Wine, a singer-turned-politician whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, launched his campaign to become Uganda\u2019s next president in October, he appeared in tailored suits, greeting crowds with a familiar smile.<\/p>\n The mood, at least at first, felt cautiously hopeful.<\/p>\n list of 3 items<\/span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n But by December, that image had disappeared.<\/p>\n As campaigning comes to an end on Tuesday, Bobi Wine, who is the main opposition candidate looking to unseat long-serving President Yoweri Museveni, now only appears in public wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet.<\/p>\n For many Ugandans, his change in attire \u2013 and the state violence that led to it \u2013 are symbols of a foregone political outcome: An incumbent victory likely to be rejected by his competitors.<\/p>\n Since he was cleared to run in the election in September, Bobi Wine\u2019s campaign convoy has frequently been met with tear gas, roadblocks and arrests of supporters. Campaign events are regularly disrupted, with people abruptly dispersing and roads sealed off.<\/p>\n While the violence has not reached the deadly levels of the 2021 election, when more than 50 people were killed and hundreds of Bobi Wine supporters were detained following spontaneous protests in the capital, Kampala, the campaign environment has become increasingly militarised \u2013 defined by calculated repression, intimidation and a steadily shrinking space for Bobi Wine to sell his manifesto, analysts have observed.<\/p>\n Bobi Wine, 43, is contesting for a second time in Thursday\u2019s election after he finished as the runner-up in the 2021 polls.<\/p>\n Museveni won that last disputed vote during which Bobi Wine alleged fraud and urged citizens to reject the result. The 81-year-old incumbent has ruled the country for nearly four decades after capturing power following a rebel war, and is seeking a seventh term in office.<\/p>\n Five other candidates are also in this year\u2019s race, in which 21.6 million registered voters are expected to cast their votes.<\/p>\n Even before campaigning officially began, Bobi Wine\u2019s team expected violence.<\/p>\n Museveni\u2019s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba \u2013 who serves as Uganda\u2019s army chief \u2013 had publicly threatened Bobi Wine in the months leading to the campaign season, including remarks about beheading him.<\/p>\n Kainerugaba also claimed responsibility for the abduction and torture of Bobi Wine\u2019s bodyguard, Edward Ssebuufu, who remains in detention.<\/p>\n Opposition officials say that while the worst of Kainerugaba\u2019s threats have not materialised, the state, fearing the big audience Bobi Wine was attracting, decided to unleash violence on him during the election campaign.<\/p>\n \u201cIn terms of violence, we saw that the first month [October] was a bit not so violent, but after that it became violent and chaotic,\u201d David Lewis Rubonyoya, secretary-general of National Unity Platform (NUP), the party Bobi Wine leads, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n During a campaign stop in Gulu, northern Uganda, in December, Bobi Wine was attacked by security forces and plainclothes individuals armed with sticks. He and several of his aides were beaten, and campaign equipment was vandalised. One person later died following the incident. In a separate incident in Mbarara, western Uganda, in November, police arrested 43 Bobi Wine supporters after a confrontation over campaign routes. They remain in detention.<\/p>\n During the 2021 election period, the protests and deadly police crackdown were prompted by Bobi Wine\u2019s arrest for allegedly flaunting COVID-19 guidelines. This year, although the violence has so far been muted, opposition figures and analysts insist the repression is no less severe \u2013 only more controlled.<\/p>\n Michael Mutyaba, a Ugandan political analyst and a doctoral researcher at SOAS University of London, says the difference lies in strategy.<\/p>\n \u201cIn 2021 and before, security agencies were in panic mode. There was state violence that was less calculated. The violence now looks more calculated and expanded,\u201d he told Al Jazeera. He pointed to arrests of random people, like a Catholic priest charged with money laundering, as examples. The government also arrested Sarah Birete, a prominent human rights activist and critic, who will only be released after the election.<\/p>\n Bobi Wine, too, has faced increased onslaught from the state, with candidates sponsored by his party to stand in parliamentary elections coming under particular strain. Many of the targeted candidates standing in the parliamentary polls, also being held on Thursday, have withdrawn their candidacies, publicly denounced Bobi Wine, and joined the governing party.<\/p>\n Most of these defections, managed by parliament\u2019s deputy speaker, Thomas Tayebwa, have occurred daily but mainly outside the central region, which is considered Bobi Wine\u2019s stronghold. Bobi Wine has claimed that these candidates were bribed, while the state maintains that they joined the governing party freely and without conditions.<\/p>\n Yusuf Serunkuma, a political analyst based at Kampala\u2019s Makerere University, said he is not surprised by the \u201cregime\u2019s\u201d tactics.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is part of transactional politics,\u201d he told Al Jazeera. But he added that if the opposition had the capacity to buy candidates from the governing party, they too would be doing it daily.<\/p>\n Another method the state has used to eliminate candidates sponsored by Bobi Wine\u2019s party has been through disqualification by the Electoral Commission, which has argued that some candidates failed to meet nomination requirements. Jude Byamukama, a Ugandan constitutional lawyer, says the cancellations have been \u201cridiculous\u201d, as critics say they are tactics deployed to halt the opposition.<\/p>\n \u201cThey [Electoral Commission] were trying to create unopposed candidates in several constituencies without a lawful basis,\u201d Byamukama told Al Jazeera. He added that after disqualification, the commission then made it difficult for candidates to appeal to the courts by failing to serve them the decisions on time.<\/p>\n Months before the election season, Museveni also launched a softer offensive, particularly targeting informal sector players in Bobi Wine\u2019s strongholds in central Uganda. There, the president has distributed millions of dollars in cash to groups such as motorcycle riders, taxi drivers, salon operators and street vendors. Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a retired historian from Makerere University, describes this as \u201celectoral corruption\u201d meant to influence voters, while Serunkuma said \u201cvote buying\u201d is normal in Ugandan politics, but this time, it\u2019s been more organised.<\/p>\n As election day approaches on Thursday, Bobi Wine has warned that the state plans to arrest him and abduct key organisers who would play a role in monitoring polling stations.<\/p>\n He has issued advice to supporters: Disable phone location services, avoid predictable routes, limit time spent in one place, and flee if followed by unfamiliar vehicles or motorcycles \u2013 like the Toyota Hiace commonly associated with state abductions.<\/p>\n \u201cI am aware of a plot by the desperate regime to have me arrested before polling day,\u201d he recently said on social media.<\/p>\n Another flashpoint looms over election day itself: Whether voters should remain near polling stations after voting to \u201cprotect the vote\u201d, as Bobi Wine has urged.<\/p>\n Ugandan law allows voters to remain at least 20 metres (66ft) away from polling stations, but the Electoral Commission and security agencies have advised people to leave immediately after voting.<\/p>\n The Electoral Commission has framed the issue as one of discipline rather than legality, warning that crowds could provoke disorder.<\/p>\n Despite the tense atmosphere among political players, Ugandans say they want peace \u2013 regardless of political affiliation.<\/p>\n Wanyama Isaac, a casual construction worker in Kampala and a Bobi Wine supporter, says elections should not descend into violence.<\/p>\n \u201cViolence helps no one. It is the responsibility of both sides to remain calm,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Mashabe Alex, a boda boda rider who supports Museveni, agrees.<\/p>\n \u201cViolence destroys businesses and lives, as we saw in 2021.\u201d<\/p>\n He says the opposition should not threaten Museveni supporters like himself.<\/p>\n Bobi Wine\u2019s camp has not disclosed its post-election strategy. But Museveni has been warning his competitor\u2019s supporters not to dare confront security agencies.<\/p>\n \u201cI have heard Bobi Wine say that soldiers and police are few while rioters are many. I advise you not to believe him. Every soldier and police officer has a gun with 120 bullets,\u201d Museveni warned in December.<\/p>\n The military already has soldiers in infantry mobility vehicles in Kampala, an opposition stronghold.<\/p>\n Rubongoya of the NUP argues that the Electoral Commission cannot declare an opposition candidate a winner in Uganda without pressure from the public.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Ugandans vote in large numbers and peacefully demand their victory, the Electoral Commission will be pushed to announce the right candidate,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cOur ideology is people power. If people are determined, intimidation and money will not stop them,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n However, Rubongoya acknowledged that memories of the 2020\u20132021 election violence still haunt many Ugandans. He warned that any attempt to protest could be met with lethal force.<\/p>\n Serunkuma argues that the opposition signed up for an electoral process that was rigged from the start, and that they know they can never win, suggesting that their target may not be unseating Museveni himself.<\/p>\n Rather, he says parties like that of Bobi Wine want to \u201cconsolidate themselves under Museveni\u201d by, for instance, retaining positions they hold in parliament.<\/p>\n Mutyaba predicts that after the election results are announced, Bobi Wine will likely be placed under house arrest \u2013 a tactic the state has used repeatedly since 2011. His party will issue statements dismissing the election results, and that will likely be the end.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is impossible to organise protests under the current conditions,\u201d Mutyaba said. \u201cThe dynamics are not in their favour. The only hope is that, at some point during Museveni\u2019s next term, an incident could trigger an uprising. But that will not happen next week.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Kampala, Uganda \u2013 When Bobi Wine, a singer-turned-politician whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, launched his campaign to become Uganda\u2019s next president in October, he appeared in tailored suits, greeting crowds with a familiar smile. The mood, at least at first, felt cautiously hopeful. Recommended Stories list of 3 itemsend of list But by December, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8435,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-africa-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inernews.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Recommended Stories <\/h2>\n
![\"Bobi](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AP26010297594594-1768280146.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80\")
A climate of fear<\/h2>\n
![\"Uganda\"](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AP26012621840318-1768280157.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80\")
Voter and candidate \u2018bribery\u2019<\/h2>\n
![\"Uganda\"](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AP26010297329067-1768280123.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80\")
Fears the worst is yet to come<\/h2>\n
Ugandans want peace<\/h2>\n
![\"Museveni\"](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AP26007758951491-1768280045.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80\")
An uncertain endgame<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"