Manchester’s Muslim voters pivotal in UK election showdown | Politics

Manchester, United Kingdom – Usman Khan stands behind his counter, rows of colourful vapes lined up in neat rows behind him. Outside, a biting wind blows down Denton High Street. Khan moved to Denton from nearby Gorton not long ago. Now, he’s one of the 80,000 locals who have been thrust into the centre of the fight for the future of British politics as they prepare to head to the polls this month.

These Manchester suburbs have become a microcosm of the wider story of modern British politics: Support for the centrist parties of Labour and the Conservatives is collapsing while emergent left- and right-wing parties are surging in the polls. What happens in the February 26 parliamentary by-election in the highly diverse constituency of Gorton and Denton will reverberate all the way to Westminster – and analysts have said it’s the local Muslim vote holding the cards.

But for now, neither Khan nor anyone else can say what the citizens of Denton and Gorton will decide.

The bookmaker’s odds, often one of the more reliable measures, show the contest to be incredibly close, with the left-wing Greens just edging out the competition. Though this is far from assured.

That confusion is replicated in national polls. The UK’s ruling Labour Party, after winning a landslide victory in 2024, is in sharp decline after a series of U-turns and scandals.

Labour’s traditional opposition, the Conservatives, still carry the baggage of years of political chaos from their time in power and are struggling in both local and national polls.

The political opposites of the Green Party and the right-wing Reform UK are benefitting from the collapse of the centre.

In Gorton and Denton, “it’s a tough, tough fight between Labour and Reform,” Khan told Al Jazeera. “The Greens will cut the Labour vote, I think.”

For the Greens, this election is a chance to build on their momentum in the polls.

“A win in Gorton and Denton would show that Greens can win everywhere in this country,” Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer told Al Jazeera.

Labour is framing itself as the only viable alternative to the anti-immigration Reform party: “There’s a lot at stake in this election. It’s a choice between unity and division,” Labour candidate Stogia told Al Jazeera, arguing that voting Green would benefit Reform.

The local Labour Party has had its problems, though. The vote to elect a new MP in the area was triggered by the resignation of the sitting Labour MP, Andrew Gwynne, who cited health grounds, but his resignation followed quickly upon his alleged involvement in a scandal of the local Labour Party’s making this year. Labour then blocked the candidacy of the widely popular Manchester mayor and potential rival for the top job, Andy Burnham.

That series of events is seen by some here as building on a pattern of weakness that has undermined Labour while giving space to Spencer and Reform’s Matthew Goodwin.

Burnham is popular, Khan conceded, but in Denton, with the left-wing vote divided between Labour and the Greens, it is Reform that is doing much of the running.

Goodwin is a former academic and right-wing commentator whose views on race have alienated many in this notably multicultural area of Manchester.

“To be very honest, Reform is popular, but I would say that the Reform candidate is not popular,” Khan explained, stressing the importance to voters of connections to the area that they will be elected to represent. “He’s not a Denton guy,” Khan said.

Like many in Gorton and Denton, Khan was unsure of who he would eventually vote for. Nearly everyone Al Jazeera spoke to was frustrated with a political mainstream they saw as having repeatedly let them down.

For Conservative voters, such as 58-year-old support worker Susan from Gorton, who did not provide her surname, the chaos of the last Conservative administrations means a vote for Reform. For others, such as 57-year-old Henry Iyoha, a former council officer originally from Nigeria who now runs a stall in the indoor market in Gorton, years of Conservative rule mean sticking with Labour, whatever his misgivings over the party leader or policies.

Majority-white Denton and multicultural Gorton might be one constituency, but they’re very different towns. For Iyoha, whatever success Reform finds in Denton is unlikely to be matched in Gorton.

“Reform as a party doesn’t pull the weight here,” he told Al Jazeera. “Gorton is a mixed place.”

While Denton may flirt with Reform during local council elections, whether it will continue to support the anti-migrant party in the by-election is far from clear, Professor Robert Ford of Manchester said.

Gorton is more predictable. “It’s a very diverse area with a large Muslim, migrant population as well as students, young professionals and families, all areas where you’d expect the left and the Greens to do well,” he told Al Jazeera.

Muslims represent about 30 percent of the Gorton and Denton electorate.

“The Muslim vote will absolutely decide the election. It’s pivotal and hard to predict,” Ford said. “They represent a volatile swing vote. Labour was massively taken by surprise by the loss of the Muslim vote in 2024.”

Many turned away from Labour over what they saw as its support for Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, making predicting their vote in this month’s election almost impossible.

Equally, Goodwin, who’s not from the area and is perceived as an outsider, has been a poor strategic choice by Reform, Ford said, adding, however, that the party may benefit from a “strong anti-system vote” in the area, even among some Muslims.

Whatever happens in the vote, life for Khan on Denton’s High Street will continue. “Denton is very nice,” he said. “It’s up to you. If you are good, all the people are good.”

The Conservatives and Reform did not respond to a request for comment.